Electricity scarcity returning as an economic constraint
Tracking demand growth, grid tightness, energy prices, and the supply response across solar, clean energy, and nuclear.
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Industrial production index for electric and gas utilities — tracks total generation volume.
104.2Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +3.0%, 2.3 pp above trend, a 0.74σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Mar '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -4.6% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad industrial output drives electricity demand from factories, semiconductor plants, and reshoring.
101.8Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.7%, 35 bps above trend, a 0.13σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market's real-time pricing of the utility sector — rises when investors expect higher electricity demand and earnings.
$45.2
Trend YoY growth is +13.4%, accelerating by 66 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +16.7%, 3.3 pp above trend, a 0.81σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.4% + 66 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Tightness
Independent power producer with gas and nuclear fleet — outperforms when grid scarcity drives power prices higher.
$146.9
Trend YoY growth is +118.0%, accelerating by 15.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 171 consecutive periods. Latest: -4.8%, 122.7 pp below trend, a 6.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 38.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −18.4% + 15.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. nuclear fleet operator — data center power deals signal tightness in clean baseload supply.
$293.6
Trend YoY growth is +56.8%, slowing by 5.9 pp/year over the last 3Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 45 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.2%, 55.5 pp below trend, a 2.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 28.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 76.3% − 5.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. utility by market cap — tracks clean energy capacity buildout against rising load.
$94.6
Trend YoY growth is +3.5%, slowing by 2.7 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 137 consecutive periods. Latest: +35.1%, 31.6 pp above trend, a 2.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 27.7% − 2.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Price
Best household and business pain metric — average cents per kilowatt-hour across all sectors.
0.19¢/kWh
Trend YoY growth is +3.6%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 13 consecutive periods. Latest: +7.2%, 3.6 pp above trend, a 0.92σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +2.6% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.8% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Natural gas often sets marginal power prices in the U.S. — the key input cost for electricity generation.
$2.7
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 60 consecutive periods. Latest: 0.8x, 30.2 pp below trend, a 0.42σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 61.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.4% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Oil prices propagate through energy costs, transportation, and inflation — an upstream driver of electricity costs.
$109.8
Trend YoY growth is 1.0x, slowing by 40 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 44 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.9x, 82.8 pp above trend, a 2.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 32.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.9% − 40 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Supply Response
Tracks solar energy companies — the fastest-growing source of new U.S. electricity capacity.
$61.7
Trend YoY growth is -0.5%, slowing by 5.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 155 consecutive periods. Latest: +77.6%, 78.1 pp above trend, a 3.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 45.8% − 5.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad clean energy basket spanning solar, wind, and batteries — the market's read on supply buildout.
$21.4
Trend YoY growth is +4.7%, slowing by 2.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 156 consecutive periods. Latest: +70.0%, 65.3 pp above trend, a 5.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 16.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 24.4% − 2.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
World's largest public uranium producer — rising price signals nuclear renaissance as baseload supply response.
$116.9
Trend YoY growth is +76.4%, accelerating by 9.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 96 consecutive periods. Latest: +125.5%, 49.1 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 62.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −5.0% + 9.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
The energy sector is splitting into two distinct stories — a massive re-rating of traditional utility business models versus actual energy production fundamentals that remain only modestly above trend — and the divergence is historically extreme.
Electricity scarcity returning as an economic constraint
Tracking demand growth, grid tightness, energy prices, and the supply response across solar, clean energy, and nuclear.
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Industrial production index for electric and gas utilities — tracks total generation volume.
104.2Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +3.0%, 2.3 pp above trend, a 0.74σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Mar '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -4.6% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad industrial output drives electricity demand from factories, semiconductor plants, and reshoring.
101.8Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.7%, 35 bps above trend, a 0.13σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market's real-time pricing of the utility sector — rises when investors expect higher electricity demand and earnings.
$45.2
Trend YoY growth is +13.4%, accelerating by 66 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +16.7%, 3.3 pp above trend, a 0.81σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.4% + 66 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Tightness
Independent power producer with gas and nuclear fleet — outperforms when grid scarcity drives power prices higher.
$146.9
Trend YoY growth is +118.0%, accelerating by 15.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 171 consecutive periods. Latest: -4.8%, 122.7 pp below trend, a 6.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 38.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −18.4% + 15.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. nuclear fleet operator — data center power deals signal tightness in clean baseload supply.
$293.6
Trend YoY growth is +56.8%, slowing by 5.9 pp/year over the last 3Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 45 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.2%, 55.5 pp below trend, a 2.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 28.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 76.3% − 5.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. utility by market cap — tracks clean energy capacity buildout against rising load.
$94.6
Trend YoY growth is +3.5%, slowing by 2.7 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 137 consecutive periods. Latest: +35.1%, 31.6 pp above trend, a 2.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 27.7% − 2.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Price
Best household and business pain metric — average cents per kilowatt-hour across all sectors.
0.19¢/kWh
Trend YoY growth is +3.6%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 13 consecutive periods. Latest: +7.2%, 3.6 pp above trend, a 0.92σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +2.6% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.8% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Natural gas often sets marginal power prices in the U.S. — the key input cost for electricity generation.
$2.7
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 60 consecutive periods. Latest: 0.8x, 30.2 pp below trend, a 0.42σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 61.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.4% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Oil prices propagate through energy costs, transportation, and inflation — an upstream driver of electricity costs.
$109.8
Trend YoY growth is 1.0x, slowing by 40 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 44 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.9x, 82.8 pp above trend, a 2.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 32.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.9% − 40 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Supply Response
Tracks solar energy companies — the fastest-growing source of new U.S. electricity capacity.
$61.7
Trend YoY growth is -0.5%, slowing by 5.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 155 consecutive periods. Latest: +77.6%, 78.1 pp above trend, a 3.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 45.8% − 5.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad clean energy basket spanning solar, wind, and batteries — the market's read on supply buildout.
$21.4
Trend YoY growth is +4.7%, slowing by 2.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 156 consecutive periods. Latest: +70.0%, 65.3 pp above trend, a 5.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 16.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 24.4% − 2.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
World's largest public uranium producer — rising price signals nuclear renaissance as baseload supply response.
$116.9
Trend YoY growth is +76.4%, accelerating by 9.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 96 consecutive periods. Latest: +125.5%, 49.1 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 62.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −5.0% + 9.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend