Electricity scarcity returning as an economic constraint
Tracking demand growth, grid tightness, energy prices, and the supply response across solar, clean energy, and nuclear.
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Industrial production index for electric and gas utilities — tracks total generation volume.
125.5Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.8%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +6.9%, 6.1 pp above trend, a 2.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +23.6% by Oct '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad industrial output drives electricity demand from factories, semiconductor plants, and reshoring.
103.1Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 15 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.4%, 98 bps above trend, a 0.39σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 75 bps due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +2.0% by Oct '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market's real-time pricing of the utility sector — rises when investors expect higher electricity demand and earnings.
$39.7
Trend YoY growth is +13.0%, accelerating by 58 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 53 consecutive periods. Latest: -6.3%, 19.3 pp below trend, a 2.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.8% + 58 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Tightness
Independent power producer with gas and nuclear fleet — outperforms when grid scarcity drives power prices higher.
$140.8
Trend YoY growth is +100.8%, accelerating by 12.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 269 consecutive periods. Latest: -27.7%, 128.5 pp below trend, a 8.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 20.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −7.2% + 12.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. nuclear fleet operator — data center power deals signal tightness in clean baseload supply.
$264.6
Trend YoY growth is +27.7%, slowing by 16.4 pp/year over the last 4Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 107 consecutive periods. Latest: -19.1%, 46.9 pp below trend, a 3.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 88.6% − 16.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. utility by market cap — tracks clean energy capacity buildout against rising load.
$75.9
Trend YoY growth is +4.7%, slowing by 2.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +3.4%, 1.3 pp below trend, a 0.15σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 26.7% − 2.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Price
Best household and business pain metric — average cents per kilowatt-hour across all sectors.
0.20¢/kWh
Trend YoY growth is +3.7%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +3.7%, 0 bps below trend, a 0.00σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.7% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Natural gas often sets marginal power prices in the U.S. — the key input cost for electricity generation.
$2.9
Trend YoY growth is 1.2x, accelerating by 67 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 83 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.0x, 15.1 pp below trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.6% + 67 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Oil prices propagate through energy costs, transportation, and inflation — an upstream driver of electricity costs.
$96.4
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 25 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 51 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.5x, 44.5 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 18.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 13.2% − 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Supply Response
Tracks solar energy companies — the fastest-growing source of new U.S. electricity capacity.
$43.4
Trend YoY growth is +1.6%, slowing by 5.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -0.5%, 2.1 pp below trend, a 0.07σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 47.7% − 5.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad clean energy basket spanning solar, wind, and batteries — the market's read on supply buildout.
$17.0
Trend YoY growth is +8.2%, slowing by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 250 consecutive periods. Latest: +11.0%, 2.9 pp above trend, a 0.16σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 24.3% − 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
World's largest public uranium producer — rising price signals nuclear renaissance as baseload supply response.
$86.9
Trend YoY growth is +73.6%, accelerating by 8.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 79 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.8%, 69.8 pp below trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 11.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.5% + 8.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
The energy sector is splitting into two distinct stories — a massive re-rating of traditional utility business models versus actual energy production fundamentals that remain only modestly above trend — and the divergence is historically extreme.
Electricity scarcity returning as an economic constraint
Tracking demand growth, grid tightness, energy prices, and the supply response across solar, clean energy, and nuclear.
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Industrial production index for electric and gas utilities — tracks total generation volume.
125.5Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.8%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +6.9%, 6.1 pp above trend, a 2.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +23.6% by Oct '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad industrial output drives electricity demand from factories, semiconductor plants, and reshoring.
103.1Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 15 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.4%, 98 bps above trend, a 0.39σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 75 bps due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +2.0% by Oct '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market's real-time pricing of the utility sector — rises when investors expect higher electricity demand and earnings.
$39.7
Trend YoY growth is +13.0%, accelerating by 58 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 53 consecutive periods. Latest: -6.3%, 19.3 pp below trend, a 2.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.8% + 58 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Tightness
Independent power producer with gas and nuclear fleet — outperforms when grid scarcity drives power prices higher.
$140.8
Trend YoY growth is +100.8%, accelerating by 12.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 269 consecutive periods. Latest: -27.7%, 128.5 pp below trend, a 8.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 20.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −7.2% + 12.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. nuclear fleet operator — data center power deals signal tightness in clean baseload supply.
$264.6
Trend YoY growth is +27.7%, slowing by 16.4 pp/year over the last 4Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 107 consecutive periods. Latest: -19.1%, 46.9 pp below trend, a 3.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 88.6% − 16.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. utility by market cap — tracks clean energy capacity buildout against rising load.
$75.9
Trend YoY growth is +4.7%, slowing by 2.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +3.4%, 1.3 pp below trend, a 0.15σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 26.7% − 2.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Price
Best household and business pain metric — average cents per kilowatt-hour across all sectors.
0.20¢/kWh
Trend YoY growth is +3.7%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +3.7%, 0 bps below trend, a 0.00σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.7% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Natural gas often sets marginal power prices in the U.S. — the key input cost for electricity generation.
$2.9
Trend YoY growth is 1.2x, accelerating by 67 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 83 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.0x, 15.1 pp below trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.6% + 67 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Oil prices propagate through energy costs, transportation, and inflation — an upstream driver of electricity costs.
$96.4
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 25 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 51 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.5x, 44.5 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 18.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 13.2% − 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Supply Response
Tracks solar energy companies — the fastest-growing source of new U.S. electricity capacity.
$43.4
Trend YoY growth is +1.6%, slowing by 5.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -0.5%, 2.1 pp below trend, a 0.07σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 47.7% − 5.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad clean energy basket spanning solar, wind, and batteries — the market's read on supply buildout.
$17.0
Trend YoY growth is +8.2%, slowing by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 250 consecutive periods. Latest: +11.0%, 2.9 pp above trend, a 0.16σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 24.3% − 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
World's largest public uranium producer — rising price signals nuclear renaissance as baseload supply response.
$86.9
Trend YoY growth is +73.6%, accelerating by 8.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 79 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.8%, 69.8 pp below trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 11.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.5% + 8.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend