Electricity & Gas Utility Output
Industrial production index for electric and gas utilities — tracks total generation volume.
Key Insight
Electricity output is finally breaking out of its two-decade flatline, with utility production up roughly +3% YoY after twenty years of near-zero growth — the clearest signal yet that AI data-center load, reshoring, and electrification have moved from forecast to measured reality.
110.6Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +1.2%, 0.5 pp above trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun 1. At current levels, YoY would rise to +5.2% by Aug '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)
Projected value (Index)
| Forecast made in | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '25 | 101.5 | 116.7 | 133.5 | 116.8 | 101.1 | 93.08 | 94.80 | 108.3 | 121.4 | 115.8 | 103.5 | 96.05 | 99.32 | 118.4 | 126.9 | 112.3 | 99.61 | 91.30 | 93.65 | 106.3 | 116.3 | 123% |
| Dec '25 | 121.3 | 133.7 | 116.9 | 101.1 | 93.01 | 94.65 | 108.1 | 121.0 | 115.3 | 102.9 | 95.50 | 98.67 | 117.5 | 125.9 | 111.3 | 98.62 | 90.32 | 92.55 | 104.9 | 114.4 | 138% | |
| Jan '26 | 130.3 | 116.3 | 100.5 | 92.44 | 94.04 | 107.3 | 120.2 | 114.5 | 102.1 | 94.70 | 97.81 | 116.5 | 124.7 | 110.2 | 97.60 | 89.35 | 91.52 | 103.7 | 112.2 | 157% | ||
| Feb '26 | 115.7 | 100.7 | 92.65 | 94.31 | 107.7 | 120.6 | 115.0 | 102.6 | 95.22 | 98.40 | 117.2 | 125.5 | 111.1 | 98.40 | 90.13 | 92.38 | 104.8 | 113.9 | 164% | |||
| Mar '26 | 102.8 | 94.28 | 96.24 | 110.3 | 123.8 | 118.4 | 106.0 | 98.64 | 102.3 | 122.2 | 131.3 | 116.5 | 103.5 | 95.09 | 97.75 | 111.2 | 124.5 | 32% | ||||
| Apr '26 | 94.51 | 96.53 | 110.6 | 124.3 | 118.9 | 106.5 | 99.20 | 102.9 | 123.0 | 132.2 | 117.4 | 104.3 | 95.92 | 98.66 | 112.3 | 126.3 | 19% | |||||
| May '26 | 97.19 | 111.2 | 125.1 | 119.8 | 107.4 | 100.1 | 103.9 | 124.3 | 133.7 | 118.8 | 105.7 | 97.29 | 100.2 | 114.1 | 129.2 | 45% | ||||||
| Jun '26 | 110.6 | 124.6 | 119.2 | 106.8 | 99.45 | 103.2 | 123.4 | 132.6 | 117.8 | 104.7 | 96.28 | 99.05 | 112.8 | 127.0 | ||||||||
| Jul '26 | 124.6 | 119.2 | 106.8 | 99.45 | 103.2 | 123.4 | 132.6 | 117.8 | 104.7 | 96.28 | 99.05 | 112.8 | 127.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '25 | +3.5% | +0.7% | +0.5% | +0.2% | +0.0% | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.8% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.6% | -2.9% | -3.1% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -4.2% | 123% |
| Dec '25 | +4.7% | +0.6% | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -1.1% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.8% | -3.1% | -3.4% | -3.8% | -4.1% | -4.4% | -4.8% | -5.1% | -5.5% | 138% | |
| Jan '26 | -1.9% | -0.3% | -0.6% | -1.0% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.1% | -2.5% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -3.6% | -4.0% | -4.4% | -4.7% | -5.1% | -5.5% | -5.8% | -6.2% | -6.6% | 157% | ||
| Feb '26 | -0.7% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -1.1% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -4.0% | -4.3% | -4.6% | -5.0% | -5.3% | -5.6% | 164% | |||
| Mar '26 | +1.7% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 32% | ||||
| Apr '26 | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.6% | 19% | |||||
| May '26 | +1.9% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.7% | +2.8% | +2.9% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.3% | 45% | ||||||
| Jun '26 | +1.2% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.0% | ||||||||
| Jul '26 | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.