WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices propagate through energy costs, transportation, and inflation — an upstream driver of electricity costs.
$114.0
Trend YoY growth is +4.1%, slowing by 44 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +86.8%, 82.6 pp above trend, a 2.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 34.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 7.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.3% − 44 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($/bbl)
Projected value ($/bbl)
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $63.2 | $57.7 | $56.2 | $59.1 | $58.9 | $56.1 | $57.1 | $46.9 | $48.0 | $51.3 | $54.0 | $48.9 | $47.5 | $46.0 | $43.3 | $41.9 | $46.7 | $48.0 | $73.1 | $80.2 | $33.5 | 113% |
| Oct '25 | $61.8 | $55.7 | $58.5 | $58.1 | $55.1 | $56.0 | $45.8 | $46.7 | $49.8 | $52.2 | $47.1 | $45.6 | $44.0 | $41.2 | $39.8 | $44.2 | $45.2 | $68.6 | $74.9 | $30.3 | 132% | |
| Nov '25 | $58.6 | $59.2 | $58.8 | $55.9 | $56.9 | $46.6 | $47.6 | $50.7 | $53.2 | $48.1 | $46.7 | $45.1 | $42.3 | $40.8 | $45.4 | $46.6 | $70.7 | $77.4 | $31.9 | 145% | ||
| Dec '25 | $57.3 | $59.9 | $57.2 | $58.4 | $48.0 | $49.2 | $52.7 | $55.6 | $50.5 | $49.2 | $47.8 | $45.0 | $43.6 | $48.8 | $50.3 | $76.7 | $84.4 | $36.2 | 161% | |||
| Jan '26 | $64.5 | $58.3 | $59.8 | $49.5 | $51.0 | $55.0 | $58.3 | $53.3 | $52.2 | $51.0 | $48.3 | $47.2 | $53.1 | $55.1 | $84.5 | $93.6 | $41.9 | 182% | ||||
| Feb '26 | $67.0 | $62.4 | $52.0 | $54.0 | $58.6 | $62.6 | $57.6 | $56.9 | $55.9 | $53.4 | $52.5 | $59.4 | $62.0 | $95.8 | $106.8 | $50.9 | 122% | |||||
| Mar '26 | $102.9 | $61.6 | $65.1 | $72.0 | $78.2 | $73.2 | $73.5 | $73.4 | $71.1 | $71.0 | $81.6 | $86.5 | $135.3 | $152.9 | $89.0 | 96% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | $114.0 | $67.4 | $74.7 | $81.3 | $76.4 | $76.9 | $77.0 | $74.8 | $74.8 | $86.3 | $91.6 | $143.6 | $162.6 | $98.1 | ||||||||
| May '26 | $67.4 | $74.7 | $81.3 | $76.4 | $76.9 | $77.0 | $74.8 | $74.8 | $86.3 | $91.6 | $143.6 | $162.6 | $98.1 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | -10.3% | -17.0% | -17.7% | -18.4% | -19.1% | -19.8% | -20.5% | -21.2% | -21.9% | -22.6% | -23.3% | -24.0% | -24.7% | -25.4% | -26.1% | -26.8% | -27.6% | -28.3% | -28.9% | -29.6% | -30.3% | 113% |
| Oct '25 | -11.6% | -18.4% | -19.3% | -20.2% | -21.2% | -22.1% | -23.0% | -24.0% | -24.9% | -25.8% | -26.8% | -27.8% | -28.7% | -29.6% | -30.6% | -31.5% | -32.5% | -33.3% | -34.3% | -35.2% | 132% | |
| Nov '25 | -14.2% | -18.3% | -19.2% | -20.1% | -20.9% | -21.8% | -22.6% | -23.5% | -24.4% | -25.2% | -26.1% | -27.0% | -27.8% | -28.7% | -29.6% | -30.5% | -31.2% | -32.1% | -33.0% | 145% | ||
| Dec '25 | -22.4% | -17.7% | -18.3% | -18.8% | -19.3% | -19.9% | -20.5% | -21.0% | -21.6% | -22.1% | -22.7% | -23.2% | -23.8% | -24.3% | -24.9% | -25.4% | -26.0% | -26.5% | 161% | |||
| Jan '26 | -11.4% | -16.7% | -16.8% | -16.9% | -17.0% | -17.0% | -17.1% | -17.2% | -17.3% | -17.4% | -17.5% | -17.6% | -17.7% | -17.7% | -17.8% | -17.9% | -18.0% | 182% | ||||
| Feb '26 | -4.3% | -13.2% | -12.6% | -12.1% | -11.6% | -11.1% | -10.5% | -10.0% | -9.5% | -8.9% | -8.4% | -7.9% | -7.3% | -6.8% | -6.3% | -5.8% | 122% | |||||
| Mar '26 | +43.6% | +3.4% | +6.0% | +8.6% | +11.1% | +13.7% | +16.3% | +18.8% | +21.4% | +23.9% | +26.5% | +29.2% | +31.5% | +34.1% | +36.6% | 96% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | +86.8% | +9.6% | +12.7% | +15.6% | +18.7% | +21.7% | +24.7% | +27.8% | +30.7% | +33.8% | +36.8% | +39.6% | +42.6% | +45.6% | ||||||||
| May '26 | +9.6% | +12.7% | +15.6% | +18.7% | +21.7% | +24.7% | +27.8% | +30.7% | +33.8% | +36.8% | +39.6% | +42.6% | +45.6% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.