Industrialization of Intelligence
Tracking how intelligence becomes a scalable economic input through revenue growth, infrastructure buildout, and capability gains.
Updated Apr 17.
AI Revenue
Combined quarterly revenue: AWS + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud + Google Cloud + Nvidia Data Center
$148.5B
Trend YoY growth is +41.2%, accelerating by 3.1 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +38.3%, 3.0 pp below trend, a 0.40σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 32.7% + 3.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Combined estimated quarterly revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic.
$13.5B
Trend YoY growth is 2.7x, slowing by 179.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: 4.0x, 130.9 pp above trend, a 0.93σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 122.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to 2.1x by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 570.4% − 179.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of YouTube search interest for Claude vs. ChatGPT (US) — a proxy for creator and viewer attention.
5.26×
Trend YoY growth is 2.7x, accelerating by 69.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 52 consecutive periods. Latest: 12.8x, 1011.0 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 126.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.4% + 69.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrialization
Combined quarterly capital expenditure of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
$112.5B
Trend YoY growth is +104.4%, accelerating by 45.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +111.9%, 7.4 pp above trend, a 0.70σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −9.0% + 45.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly U.S. commercial electricity sales — macro proxy for whether AI compute is becoming a physical load
130.2TWh
Trend YoY growth is +6.5%, accelerating by 1.6 pp/year over the last 5Y. Latest: +6.1%, 36 bps below trend, a 0.11σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 73 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.8% + 1.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capability
How long a task can be (in minutes) for frontier models to complete it 50% of the time
11.98hours
Trend YoY growth is 6.9x, accelerating by 99.5 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: 13.0x, 610.9 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to 5.5x by Aug '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 301.1% + 99.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Highest score resolving real GitHub issues autonomously — core software engineering capability
93.9%
Trend YoY growth is +17.2%, slowing by 2353.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +21.2%, 4.0 pp above trend, a 0.69σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +14.7% by Oct '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 54.0% − 23.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
AI capability is scaling faster than the infrastructure being built to support it, and the gap is widening.
Industrialization of Intelligence
Tracking how intelligence becomes a scalable economic input through revenue growth, infrastructure buildout, and capability gains.
Updated Apr 17.
AI Revenue
Combined quarterly revenue: AWS + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud + Google Cloud + Nvidia Data Center
$148.5B
Trend YoY growth is +41.2%, accelerating by 3.1 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +38.3%, 3.0 pp below trend, a 0.40σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 32.7% + 3.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Combined estimated quarterly revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic.
$13.5B
Trend YoY growth is 2.7x, slowing by 179.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: 4.0x, 130.9 pp above trend, a 0.93σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 122.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to 2.1x by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 570.4% − 179.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of YouTube search interest for Claude vs. ChatGPT (US) — a proxy for creator and viewer attention.
5.26×
Trend YoY growth is 2.7x, accelerating by 69.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 52 consecutive periods. Latest: 12.8x, 1011.0 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 126.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.4% + 69.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrialization
Combined quarterly capital expenditure of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
$112.5B
Trend YoY growth is +104.4%, accelerating by 45.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +111.9%, 7.4 pp above trend, a 0.70σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −9.0% + 45.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly U.S. commercial electricity sales — macro proxy for whether AI compute is becoming a physical load
130.2TWh
Trend YoY growth is +6.5%, accelerating by 1.6 pp/year over the last 5Y. Latest: +6.1%, 36 bps below trend, a 0.11σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 73 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.8% + 1.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capability
How long a task can be (in minutes) for frontier models to complete it 50% of the time
11.98hours
Trend YoY growth is 6.9x, accelerating by 99.5 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: 13.0x, 610.9 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to 5.5x by Aug '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 301.1% + 99.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Highest score resolving real GitHub issues autonomously — core software engineering capability
93.9%
Trend YoY growth is +17.2%, slowing by 2353.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +21.2%, 4.0 pp above trend, a 0.69σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +14.7% by Oct '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 54.0% − 23.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend