Industrialization of Intelligence
Tracking how intelligence becomes a scalable economic input through revenue growth, infrastructure buildout, and capability gains. Most recent data from 4 days ago.
Key Insight
AI capability is scaling faster than the infrastructure being built to support it, and the gap is widening.
AI Revenue
Combined quarterly revenue: AWS + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud + Google Cloud + Nvidia Data Center
$148.5B
Trend YoY growth is +41.2%, accelerating by 3.1 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +38.3%, 3.0 pp below trend, a 0.40σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 32.7% + 3.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Combined estimated quarterly revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic.
$13.5B
Trend YoY growth is +166.2%, slowing by 179.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +297.1%, 130.9 pp above trend, a 0.93σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 122.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +107.7% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 570.4% − 179.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of YouTube search interest for Claude vs. ChatGPT (US) — a proxy for creator and viewer attention.
5.26×
Trend YoY growth is +166.5%, accelerating by 69.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 52 consecutive periods. Latest: +1177.4%, 1011.0 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 126.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.4% + 69.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrialization
Combined quarterly capital expenditure of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
$112.5B
Trend YoY growth is +104.4%, accelerating by 45.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +111.9%, 7.4 pp above trend, a 0.70σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −9.0% + 45.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly U.S. commercial electricity sales — macro proxy for whether AI compute is becoming a physical load
130.2TWh
Trend YoY growth is +6.5%, accelerating by 1.6 pp/year over the last 5Y. Latest: +6.1%, 36 bps below trend, a 0.11σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 73 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.8% + 1.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capability
How long a task can be (in minutes) for frontier models to complete it 50% of the time
11.98hours
Trend YoY growth is +589.8%, accelerating by 99.5 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +1200.8%, 610.9 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +449.5% by Aug '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 301.1% + 99.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Highest score resolving real GitHub issues autonomously — core software engineering capability
93.9%
Trend YoY growth is +17.2%, slowing by 2353.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +21.2%, 4.0 pp above trend, a 0.69σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +14.7% by Oct '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 54.0% − 23.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
Industrialization of Intelligence
Tracking how intelligence becomes a scalable economic input through revenue growth, infrastructure buildout, and capability gains. Most recent data from 4 days ago.
Key Insight
AI capability is scaling faster than the infrastructure being built to support it, and the gap is widening.
AI Revenue
Combined quarterly revenue: AWS + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud + Google Cloud + Nvidia Data Center
$148.5B
Trend YoY growth is +41.2%, accelerating by 3.1 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +38.3%, 3.0 pp below trend, a 0.40σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 32.7% + 3.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Combined estimated quarterly revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic.
$13.5B
Trend YoY growth is +166.2%, slowing by 179.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +297.1%, 130.9 pp above trend, a 0.93σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 122.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +107.7% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 570.4% − 179.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of YouTube search interest for Claude vs. ChatGPT (US) — a proxy for creator and viewer attention.
5.26×
Trend YoY growth is +166.5%, accelerating by 69.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 52 consecutive periods. Latest: +1177.4%, 1011.0 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 126.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.4% + 69.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrialization
Combined quarterly capital expenditure of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
$112.5B
Trend YoY growth is +104.4%, accelerating by 45.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +111.9%, 7.4 pp above trend, a 0.70σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −9.0% + 45.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly U.S. commercial electricity sales — macro proxy for whether AI compute is becoming a physical load
130.2TWh
Trend YoY growth is +6.5%, accelerating by 1.6 pp/year over the last 5Y. Latest: +6.1%, 36 bps below trend, a 0.11σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 73 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.8% + 1.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capability
How long a task can be (in minutes) for frontier models to complete it 50% of the time
11.98hours
Trend YoY growth is +589.8%, accelerating by 99.5 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +1200.8%, 610.9 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +449.5% by Aug '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 301.1% + 99.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Highest score resolving real GitHub issues autonomously — core software engineering capability
93.9%
Trend YoY growth is +17.2%, slowing by 2353.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +21.2%, 4.0 pp above trend, a 0.69σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +14.7% by Oct '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 54.0% − 23.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend