Cloud AI & Compute Revenue
Combined quarterly revenue: AWS + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud + Google Cloud + Nvidia Data Center
Key Insight
Combined quarterly cloud AI and compute revenue at AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, and Nvidia Data Center has roughly tripled in three years to $148.5B in Q4 2025, with YoY growth still running above +36% — an unprecedented pace for companies this large, and strong evidence that the AI infrastructure buildout is still in its early exponential phase rather than peaking.
$148.5B
Trend YoY growth is +41.2%, accelerating by 3.1 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +38.3%, 3.0 pp below trend, a 0.40σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 32.7% + 3.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($B)
Projected value ($B)
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | $114.6B | $129.9B | $139.6B | $154.0B | $165.0B | $184.1B | $189.2B | $216.5B | $241.6B | 16% |
| Q2 '25 | $127.3B | $134.7B | $147.1B | $156.1B | $172.6B | $175.7B | $199.2B | $208.3B | 8% | |
| Q3 '25 | $130.3B | $142.1B | $149.5B | $163.7B | $165.2B | $185.6B | $184.0B | 16% | ||
| Q4 '25 | $148.5B | $151.7B | $166.4B | $168.2B | $189.2B | $190.7B | ||||
| Q1 '26 | $151.7B | $166.4B | $168.2B | $189.2B | $190.7B |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | +36.6% | +42.1% | +42.7% | +43.4% | +44.0% | +44.6% | +45.2% | +45.8% | +46.4% | 16% |
| Q2 '25 | +39.3% | +37.7% | +37.0% | +36.2% | +35.5% | +34.8% | +34.1% | +33.4% | 8% | |
| Q3 '25 | +33.2% | +32.3% | +30.4% | +28.6% | +26.8% | +24.9% | +23.1% | 16% | ||
| Q4 '25 | +38.3% | +32.3% | +30.7% | +29.1% | +27.4% | +25.7% | ||||
| Q1 '26 | +32.3% | +30.7% | +29.1% | +27.4% | +25.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 2Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.