China / US ratio
China-to-US ratio across economy, energy, geopolitics, and military. Ratio metrics show China value / US value, where 1.0 = parity. Non-additive metrics (R&D in Most recent data from 2023.
Key Insight
China's economic convergence with the United States has reversed into sustained divergence across virtually every dimension tracked, and the most recent data suggests this is structural rather than cyclical.
Economy
Ratio of China's nominal GDP to US nominal GDP in current dollars. 1.0 = parity.
0.65×
Trend YoY growth is +3.7%, slowing by 26 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: -8.4%, 12.1 pp below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 12.0% − 26 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of China's PPP GDP to US PPP GDP. 1.0 = parity.
1.11×
Trend YoY growth is +2.3%, slowing by 21 bps/year over the last 32Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.9%, 3.2 pp below trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.2% − 21 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of China's manufacturing value added to US manufacturing value added. 1.0 = parity.
1.76×
Trend YoY growth is -3.2%, slowing by 1.1 pp/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -2.2%, 1.0 pp above trend, a 0.13σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 20.2% − 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Population
Ratio of China's working-age population (15–64) to US working-age population. 1.0 = parity.
4.50×
Trend YoY growth is -0.9%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: -1.5%, 63 bps below trend, a 1.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy
Ratio of China's primary energy consumption to US primary energy consumption. 1.0 = parity.
1.60×
Trend YoY growth is +4.9%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: +9.6%, 4.7 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of China's domestic primary energy production to US production. 1.0 = parity.
1.28×
Trend YoY growth is +1.9%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: +4.9%, 3.0 pp above trend, a 0.67σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.2% − 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military
Ratio of China's military expenditure to US military expenditure in current dollars. 1.0 = parity.
0.32×
Trend YoY growth is +2.3%, slowing by 45 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -3.0%, 5.3 pp below trend, a 0.72σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 12.1% − 45 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global advanced-node (<10nm) wafer fab capacity. Already a global share — shown directly.
6.0%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, accelerating by 50.0 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +0.0%, 17 bps above trend, a 0.77σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −1.2% + 50 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
China / US ratio
China-to-US ratio across economy, energy, geopolitics, and military. Ratio metrics show China value / US value, where 1.0 = parity. Non-additive metrics (R&D in Most recent data from 2023.
Key Insight
China's economic convergence with the United States has reversed into sustained divergence across virtually every dimension tracked, and the most recent data suggests this is structural rather than cyclical.
Economy
Ratio of China's nominal GDP to US nominal GDP in current dollars. 1.0 = parity.
0.65×
Trend YoY growth is +3.7%, slowing by 26 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: -8.4%, 12.1 pp below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 12.0% − 26 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of China's PPP GDP to US PPP GDP. 1.0 = parity.
1.11×
Trend YoY growth is +2.3%, slowing by 21 bps/year over the last 32Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.9%, 3.2 pp below trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.2% − 21 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of China's manufacturing value added to US manufacturing value added. 1.0 = parity.
1.76×
Trend YoY growth is -3.2%, slowing by 1.1 pp/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -2.2%, 1.0 pp above trend, a 0.13σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 20.2% − 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Population
Ratio of China's working-age population (15–64) to US working-age population. 1.0 = parity.
4.50×
Trend YoY growth is -0.9%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: -1.5%, 63 bps below trend, a 1.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy
Ratio of China's primary energy consumption to US primary energy consumption. 1.0 = parity.
1.60×
Trend YoY growth is +4.9%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: +9.6%, 4.7 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of China's domestic primary energy production to US production. 1.0 = parity.
1.28×
Trend YoY growth is +1.9%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 32Y. Latest: +4.9%, 3.0 pp above trend, a 0.67σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.2% − 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military
Ratio of China's military expenditure to US military expenditure in current dollars. 1.0 = parity.
0.32×
Trend YoY growth is +2.3%, slowing by 45 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -3.0%, 5.3 pp below trend, a 0.72σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 12.1% − 45 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global advanced-node (<10nm) wafer fab capacity. Already a global share — shown directly.
6.0%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, accelerating by 50.0 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +0.0%, 17 bps above trend, a 0.77σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −1.2% + 50 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend