Defense Spending
Ratio of China's military expenditure to US military expenditure in current dollars. 1.0 = parity.
Key Insight
Chinese defense spending is just 32% of the US level at official exchange rates in 2023 — a ratio that has been essentially flat for a decade and understates Chinese military capacity more than almost any other comparison on this dashboard.
0.32×
Trend YoY growth is +2.3%, slowing by 0.4 pp/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -3.0%, 5.3 pp below trend, a 0.72σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 12.1% − 0.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 251% |
| 2017 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 245% | |
| 2018 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 105% | ||
| 2019 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 213% | |||
| 2020 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 336% | ||||
| 2021 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 17% | |||||
| 2022 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 37% | ||||||
| 2023 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.36 | ||||||||
| 2024 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.36 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +3.1% | +0.8% | -2.9% | -6.6% | -10.3% | -14.0% | -17.6% | -21.3% | -25.0% | -28.7% | -32.4% | -36.0% | 251% |
| 2017 | +6.1% | -1.1% | -4.7% | -8.4% | -12.0% | -15.7% | -19.3% | -22.9% | -26.6% | -30.3% | -33.9% | 245% | |
| 2018 | +5.7% | +1.4% | -0.6% | -2.6% | -4.6% | -6.6% | -8.6% | -10.6% | -12.5% | -14.5% | 105% | ||
| 2019 | -8.1% | -5.4% | -8.1% | -10.8% | -13.5% | -16.2% | -18.9% | -21.6% | -24.3% | 213% | |||
| 2020 | -5.9% | -9.5% | -12.7% | -15.9% | -19.1% | -22.4% | -25.6% | -28.8% | 336% | ||||
| 2021 | +6.3% | -2.6% | -3.7% | -4.8% | -5.9% | -7.0% | -8.1% | 17% | |||||
| 2022 | -2.9% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -2.7% | -3.0% | 37% | ||||||
| 2023 | -3.0% | +1.2% | +2.5% | +3.8% | +5.1% | ||||||||
| 2024 | +1.2% | +2.5% | +3.8% | +5.1% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.