Nominal GDP
Ratio of China's nominal GDP to US nominal GDP in current dollars. 1.0 = parity.
Key Insight
China's economy, measured in nominal US dollars, has fallen from 76% of US GDP in 2021 to 65% in 2023 — a sharp reversal that directly contradicts the prevailing consensus that China is on track to overtake the United States this decade.
0.65×
Trend YoY growth is +3.7%, slowing by 0.3 pp/year over the last 32Y. Latest: -8.4%, 12.1 pp below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 12.0% − 0.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 222% |
| 2017 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 85% | |
| 2018 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 222% | ||
| 2019 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.84 | 100% | |||
| 2020 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 123% | ||||
| 2021 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 183% | |||||
| 2022 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 63% | ||||||
| 2023 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.40 | ||||||||
| 2024 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.40 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +0.0% | -3.0% | -5.4% | -7.7% | -10.1% | -12.5% | -14.9% | -17.3% | -19.7% | -22.1% | -24.5% | -26.8% | 222% |
| 2017 | +5.0% | +0.5% | -0.6% | -1.6% | -2.6% | -3.7% | -4.7% | -5.8% | -6.8% | -7.8% | -8.9% | 85% | |
| 2018 | +7.9% | +6.7% | +7.8% | +8.8% | +9.9% | +10.9% | +11.9% | +13.0% | +14.0% | +15.0% | 222% | ||
| 2019 | -1.5% | +3.8% | +4.3% | +4.8% | +5.3% | +5.8% | +6.3% | +6.8% | +7.3% | 100% | |||
| 2020 | +4.5% | +3.9% | +4.2% | +4.4% | +4.7% | +4.9% | +5.2% | +5.4% | 123% | ||||
| 2021 | +8.6% | +6.0% | +6.4% | +6.7% | +7.1% | +7.5% | +7.9% | 183% | |||||
| 2022 | -6.6% | -3.1% | -5.0% | -6.9% | -8.8% | -10.7% | 63% | ||||||
| 2023 | -8.4% | -8.2% | -10.7% | -13.2% | -15.7% | ||||||||
| 2024 | -8.2% | -10.7% | -13.2% | -15.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.