Manufacturing Value Added
Ratio of China's manufacturing value added to US manufacturing value added. 1.0 = parity.
Key Insight
China produces roughly 1.76× the manufacturing value added of the US — a structural gap that has persisted for a decade and is the single hardest data point to reconcile with the narrative that US reshoring is closing the industrial-base gap.
1.76×
Trend YoY growth is -3.2%, slowing by 1.1 pp/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -2.2%, 1.0 pp above trend, a 0.13σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 20.2% − 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.64 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.48 | 1.31 | 1.23 | 0.82 | 0.52 | 0.31 | 347% |
| 2017 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.74 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 2.04 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.96 | 2.08 | 2.22 | 150% | |
| 2018 | 1.69 | 1.68 | 1.61 | 1.76 | 1.96 | 1.82 | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 107% | ||
| 2019 | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.79 | 2.01 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 2.16 | 2.37 | 156% | |||
| 2020 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.82 | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.80 | 116% | ||||
| 2021 | 1.95 | 2.12 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 2.26 | 2.62 | 3.09 | 396% | |||||
| 2022 | 1.80 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 2.04 | 2.25 | 2.52 | 325% | ||||||
| 2023 | 1.76 | 1.71 | 1.64 | 1.56 | 1.46 | ||||||||
| 2024 | 1.71 | 1.64 | 1.56 | 1.46 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +1.8% | -9.0% | -12.0% | -15.1% | -18.1% | -21.2% | -24.2% | -27.2% | -30.3% | -33.3% | -36.4% | -39.4% | 347% |
| 2017 | +10.7% | +2.7% | +3.1% | +3.5% | +4.0% | +4.4% | +4.8% | +5.3% | +5.7% | +6.1% | +6.6% | 150% | |
| 2018 | -9.1% | -0.8% | -0.3% | +0.1% | +0.6% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +2.4% | +2.8% | 107% | ||
| 2019 | -4.1% | +0.6% | +1.9% | +3.2% | +4.6% | +5.9% | +7.2% | +8.5% | +9.8% | 156% | |||
| 2020 | +8.6% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | 116% | ||||
| 2021 | +10.8% | +8.8% | +10.6% | +12.4% | +14.2% | +16.0% | +17.8% | 396% | |||||
| 2022 | -7.7% | +5.0% | +6.8% | +8.6% | +10.4% | +12.2% | 325% | ||||||
| 2023 | -2.2% | -2.7% | -3.9% | -5.2% | -6.4% | ||||||||
| 2024 | -2.7% | -3.9% | -5.2% | -6.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.