PPP GDP
Ratio of China's PPP GDP to US PPP GDP. 1.0 = parity.
Key Insight
In purchasing-power-parity terms China overtook the US in 2017 and reached 1.11× US output by 2023, but the ratio has been drifting lower since its 2021 peak of 1.17× — a quieter but meaningful counterpoint to the "China is bigger in PPP" headline that usually ends the discussion.
1.11×
Trend YoY growth is +2.3%, slowing by 0.2 pp/year over the last 32Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.9%, 3.2 pp below trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.2% − 0.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 158% |
| 2017 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 62% | |
| 2018 | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.21 | 1.25 | 155% | ||
| 2019 | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 147% | |||
| 2020 | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 346% | ||||
| 2021 | 1.17 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.26 | 309% | |||||
| 2022 | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 215% | ||||||
| 2023 | 1.11 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 0.86 | ||||||||
| 2024 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 0.86 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +3.1% | +1.2% | +0.2% | -0.7% | -1.7% | -2.7% | -3.6% | -4.6% | -5.5% | -6.5% | -7.4% | -8.4% | 158% |
| 2017 | +3.0% | +1.7% | +1.2% | +0.6% | +0.1% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -1.6% | -2.2% | -2.7% | -3.3% | 62% | |
| 2018 | +2.9% | +2.9% | +2.9% | +2.9% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.1% | 155% | ||
| 2019 | +1.9% | +2.4% | +2.3% | +2.3% | +2.2% | +2.2% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +2.0% | 147% | |||
| 2020 | +5.5% | +4.4% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +5.5% | +5.9% | +6.3% | +6.7% | 346% | ||||
| 2021 | +1.7% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +3.1% | +3.1% | +3.1% | +3.1% | 309% | |||||
| 2022 | -4.3% | -2.8% | -4.2% | -5.7% | -7.1% | -8.6% | 215% | ||||||
| 2023 | -0.9% | -3.8% | -5.3% | -6.9% | -8.4% | ||||||||
| 2024 | -3.8% | -5.3% | -6.9% | -8.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.