EU vs US
Economic weight, productivity, financial reach, and hard power — EU relative to the United States. Updated just now.
Economic Weight
Cleanest top-line measure of relative economic mass at market exchange rates — matters for finance, procurement, and sanctions capacity.
0.68×
Trend YoY growth is -2.3%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: -0.8%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2023.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.9% − 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Better measure of underlying real output capacity, especially for judging production potential and domestic resource depth.
0.95×
Trend YoY growth is -0.6%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 33Y. Latest: -1.6%, 94 bps below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2023.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Productivity & Innovation
Best broad, cross-country measure of how much each bloc is reinvesting in future technological capability.
-1.2pp
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.1%, 13 bps above trend, a 2.1σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Financial & Monetary Reach
Public equity market depth is one of the clearest measures of capacity to finance firms, reward innovation, and host global corporate champions.
0.08×
Trend YoY growth is -13.0%, slowing by 47 bps/year over the last 49Y. Latest: -60.5%, 47.5 pp below trend, a 2.7σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.2% − 47 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Hard Power
Cleanest direct scale variable for hard power: how much each bloc actually spends on defense in current dollars.
0.37×
Trend YoY growth is -0.7%, slowing by 5 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: +10.7%, 11.4 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 11.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2023.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.5% − 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
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EU vs US
Economic weight, productivity, financial reach, and hard power — EU relative to the United States. Updated just now.
Economic Weight
Cleanest top-line measure of relative economic mass at market exchange rates — matters for finance, procurement, and sanctions capacity.
0.68×
Trend YoY growth is -2.3%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: -0.8%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2023.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.9% − 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Better measure of underlying real output capacity, especially for judging production potential and domestic resource depth.
0.95×
Trend YoY growth is -0.6%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 33Y. Latest: -1.6%, 94 bps below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2023.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Productivity & Innovation
Best broad, cross-country measure of how much each bloc is reinvesting in future technological capability.
-1.2pp
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.1%, 13 bps above trend, a 2.1σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Financial & Monetary Reach
Public equity market depth is one of the clearest measures of capacity to finance firms, reward innovation, and host global corporate champions.
0.08×
Trend YoY growth is -13.0%, slowing by 47 bps/year over the last 49Y. Latest: -60.5%, 47.5 pp below trend, a 2.7σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.2% − 47 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Hard Power
Cleanest direct scale variable for hard power: how much each bloc actually spends on defense in current dollars.
0.37×
Trend YoY growth is -0.7%, slowing by 5 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: +10.7%, 11.4 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 11.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2023.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.5% − 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend