Nominal GDP
Cleanest top-line measure of relative economic mass at market exchange rates — matters for finance, procurement, and sanctions capacity.
Key Insight
The European Union, measured in nominal US dollars, has collapsed from roughly parity with the United States in 2008 (~1.0×) to just 0.68× today — a stunning ~35% relative decline over 15 years, and one of the most underappreciated macro facts of the post-GFC era.
0.69×
Trend YoY growth is -2.1%, slowing by 9 bps/year over the last 64Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 6 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.7%, 5.8 pp above trend, a 0.89σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.7% − 9 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 1.10 | 1.44 | 1.92 | 765% |
| 2019 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.82 | 0.99 | 1.22 | 1.54 | 561% | |
| 2020 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 326% | ||
| 2021 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 156% | |||
| 2022 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 732% | ||||
| 2023 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 52% | |||||
| 2024 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 135% | ||||||
| 2025 | 0.69 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 0.87 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 0.87 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +2.7% | +5.5% | +8.3% | +11.0% | +13.8% | +16.6% | +19.4% | +22.1% | +24.9% | +27.7% | +30.5% | +33.2% | 765% |
| 2019 | -5.8% | +3.8% | +6.3% | +8.7% | +11.2% | +13.7% | +16.2% | +18.6% | +21.1% | +23.6% | +26.1% | 561% | |
| 2020 | -1.2% | -3.3% | -4.3% | -5.2% | -6.2% | -7.1% | -8.0% | -9.0% | -9.9% | -10.9% | 326% | ||
| 2021 | +1.7% | -1.5% | -1.9% | -2.3% | -2.8% | -3.2% | -3.7% | -4.1% | -4.6% | 156% | |||
| 2022 | -11.4% | -9.0% | -11.1% | -13.2% | -15.3% | -17.3% | -19.4% | -21.5% | 732% | ||||
| 2023 | +2.7% | -0.8% | -0.1% | +0.6% | +1.2% | +1.9% | +2.6% | 52% | |||||
| 2024 | -0.8% | -1.3% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% | 135% | ||||||
| 2025 | +3.7% | +3.6% | +5.1% | +6.5% | +8.0% | ||||||||
| 2026 | +3.6% | +5.1% | +6.5% | +8.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.