R&D Spending Gap (% of GDP, pp)
Best broad, cross-country measure of how much each bloc is reinvesting in future technological capability.
Key Insight
Europe now underinvests in R&D relative to the US by roughly 1.2–1.4 percentage points of GDP — the widest gap since the series began, and the single cleanest mechanical explanation for why the transatlantic productivity and output gap keeps compounding.
-1.2pp
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.1%, 0.1 pp above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (pp)
Projected value (pp)
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -3.2 | 419% |
| 2017 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 | 96% | |
| 2018 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.8 | 107% | ||
| 2019 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.9 | 130% | |||
| 2020 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.7 | 388% | ||||
| 2021 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | 458% | |||||
| 2022 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.4 | 225% | ||||||
| 2023 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| 2024 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | 419% |
| 2017 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 96% | |
| 2018 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 107% | ||
| 2019 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 130% | |||
| 2020 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 388% | ||||
| 2021 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 458% | |||||
| 2022 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 225% | ||||||
| 2023 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | ||||||||
| 2024 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.