Equity Market Capitalization
Public equity market depth is one of the clearest measures of capacity to finance firms, reward innovation, and host global corporate champions.
Key Insight
European listed equity market cap has fallen to roughly 0.18–0.20× the US total — meaning American public markets are now worth about five times Europe's combined — and this ratio has deteriorated far faster than the underlying economic gap, signaling a structural problem with how Europe finances its corporate sector.
0.08×
Trend YoY growth is -13.0%, slowing by 0.5 pp/year over the last 49Y. Latest: -60.5%, 47.5 pp below trend, a 2.9σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.2% − 0.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 94% |
| 2013 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 75% | |
| 2014 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 71% | ||
| 2015 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 113% | |||
| 2016 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 132% | ||||
| 2017 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 120% | |||||
| 2018 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.14 | |||||||
| 2019 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | -5.3% | -5.3% | -4.3% | -3.3% | -2.3% | -1.3% | -0.4% | +0.6% | +1.6% | +2.6% | +3.6% | 94% |
| 2013 | -2.1% | -5.2% | -5.1% | -4.9% | -4.8% | -4.7% | -4.5% | -4.4% | -4.2% | -4.1% | 75% | |
| 2014 | -17.3% | -9.1% | -8.9% | -8.8% | -8.6% | -8.5% | -8.3% | -8.2% | -8.0% | 71% | ||
| 2015 | -8.3% | -12.1% | -13.5% | -14.8% | -16.1% | -17.4% | -18.8% | -20.1% | 113% | |||
| 2016 | -7.5% | -11.3% | -12.4% | -13.4% | -14.5% | -15.6% | -16.6% | 132% | ||||
| 2017 | +9.9% | +5.1% | +8.5% | +11.9% | +15.3% | +18.6% | 120% | |||||
| 2018 | -25.2% | -8.9% | -8.7% | -8.4% | -8.2% | |||||||
| 2019 | -8.9% | -8.7% | -8.4% | -8.2% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.