Aging populations and low fertility

Tracking birth rates, age structure shifts, migration offsets, and labor market consequences of demographic decline.

Last updated: Apr 1, 2026, 10:57 PM

Births & Fertility

Total Fertility Rate

Births & Fertility

8.44%

Core measure of replacement shortfall — 2.1 is the replacement level for developed countries.

1.62births/woman

-0.15 births/woman vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (pp)

-0.04 pp

Crude Birth Rate

Births & Fertility

9.32%

Direct read on how many births are occurring at the population level per 1,000 people.

10.70per 1,000

-1.10 per 1,000 vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (pp)

-0.30 pp

Life Expectancy at Birth

Births & Fertility

0.20%

Rising longevity compounds the aging problem — more years in retirement per person.

78.39years

-0.15 years vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (pp)

+0.95 pp

Age Structure

Population Ages 65+ (% of Total)

Age Structure

20.01%

Cleanest headline aging metric — share of the population that is elderly.

17.93%

+2.99 % vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (bps)

+50.00 bps

Old-Age Dependency Ratio

Age Structure

22.56%

Best single metric for economic burden — ratio of 65+ population to working-age (15–64).

27.69%

+5.10 % vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (bps)

+86.00 bps

Population Growth Rate

Age Structure

40.92%

Shows when low fertility turns into stagnation or outright population decline.

0.98%

+0.28 % vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (bps)

+14.00 bps

Migration & Growth

Net Migration

Migration & Growth

0.00%

Best measure of whether immigration is offsetting low fertility and aging.

4774.0kpersons

+0.00 persons vs 10Y ago

Level

YoY %

No data

Infant Mortality Rate

Migration & Growth

1.79%

Health system quality indicator that tracks development level — rising rates signal systemic stress.

5.50per 1,000

-0.10 per 1,000 vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (pp)

+0.00 pp

U.S. Total Population

Migration & Growth

4.13%

Absolute population level — the bottom line of births, deaths, and migration.

340111.0kmillions

+13502.4k millions vs 10Y ago

Level

YoY %

+0.98 %

Labor & Economic

Labor Force Participation Rate, 55+

Labor & Economic

3.33%

Whether economies are offsetting aging by extending working lives — key to fiscal sustainability.

83.90%

+2.70 % vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (bps)

+40.00 bps

Employment-Population Ratio, 55+

Labor & Economic

3.73%

Tracks how much the 55+ cohort remains economically active as populations age.

80.70%

+2.90 % vs 10Y ago

Level

Change (bps)

+0.00 bps

Health Care ETF (XLV)

Labor & Economic

151.67%

Market signal on healthcare demand — aging populations drive structural growth in medical spending.

147.7USD

+89.03 USD vs 10Y ago

Level

YoY %

+4.20 %