Aging and sub-replacement fertility
Tracking birth rates, age structure shifts, migration offsets, and labor market consequences of demographic decline. Most recent data from today.
Key Insight
The U.S.
Age Structure
Absolute population level — the bottom line of births, deaths, and migration.
340.1T
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: +1.0%, 28 bps above trend, a 1.4σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Cleanest headline aging metric — share of the population that is elderly.
17.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 39 bps/year over the last 63Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.5%, 23 bps above trend, a 1.7σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Best single metric for economic burden — ratio of 65+ population to working-age (15–64).
27.7%
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, accelerating by 82 bps/year over the last 63Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.9%, 40 bps above trend, a 1.7σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Births & Fertility
Core measure of replacement shortfall — 2.1 is the replacement level for developed countries.
1.63births/woman
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 63Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 5 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 1 bps below trend, a 0.23σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.1% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Direct read on how many births are occurring at the population level per 1,000 people.
10.60per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: -0.1%, 8 bps below trend, a 0.29σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.4% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Rising longevity compounds the aging problem — more years in retirement per person.
78.89years
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: +0.5%, 42 bps above trend, a 0.95σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 87 bps due to an tough comparison base from Jan '23.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.2% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Labor & Economic
Whether economies are offsetting aging by extending working lives — key to fiscal sustainability.
37.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 65Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 36 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.9%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 68 bps due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.4% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Tracks how much the near-retirement cohort remains economically active as populations age.
64.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 80 bps/year over the last 48Y. Latest: +0.1%, 26 bps below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 79 bps due to an easy comparison base from Sep '24.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market signal on healthcare demand — aging populations drive structural growth in medical spending.
$146.3
Trend YoY growth is +4.3%, slowing by 1.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +10.3%, 6.0 pp above trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.2% − 1.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
Aging and sub-replacement fertility
Tracking birth rates, age structure shifts, migration offsets, and labor market consequences of demographic decline. Most recent data from today.
Key Insight
The U.S.
Age Structure
Absolute population level — the bottom line of births, deaths, and migration.
340.1T
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: +1.0%, 28 bps above trend, a 1.4σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Cleanest headline aging metric — share of the population that is elderly.
17.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 39 bps/year over the last 63Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.5%, 23 bps above trend, a 1.7σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Best single metric for economic burden — ratio of 65+ population to working-age (15–64).
27.7%
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, accelerating by 82 bps/year over the last 63Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.9%, 40 bps above trend, a 1.7σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Births & Fertility
Core measure of replacement shortfall — 2.1 is the replacement level for developed countries.
1.63births/woman
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 63Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 5 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 1 bps below trend, a 0.23σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.1% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Direct read on how many births are occurring at the population level per 1,000 people.
10.60per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: -0.1%, 8 bps below trend, a 0.29σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.4% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Rising longevity compounds the aging problem — more years in retirement per person.
78.89years
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: +0.5%, 42 bps above trend, a 0.95σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 87 bps due to an tough comparison base from Jan '23.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.2% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Labor & Economic
Whether economies are offsetting aging by extending working lives — key to fiscal sustainability.
37.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 65Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 36 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.9%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 68 bps due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.4% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Tracks how much the near-retirement cohort remains economically active as populations age.
64.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 80 bps/year over the last 48Y. Latest: +0.1%, 26 bps below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 79 bps due to an easy comparison base from Sep '24.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market signal on healthcare demand — aging populations drive structural growth in medical spending.
$146.3
Trend YoY growth is +4.3%, slowing by 1.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +10.3%, 6.0 pp above trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.2% − 1.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend