Life Expectancy at Birth
Rising longevity compounds the aging problem — more years in retirement per person.
78.89years
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 63Y. Latest: +0.5%, 0.4 pp above trend, a 0.95σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 0.9 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jan 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.2% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (years)
Projected value (years)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 78.54 | 78.42 | 78.50 | 78.62 | 76.79 | 76.11 | 77.19 | 78.12 | 78.60 | 78.29 | 77.95 | 77.59 | 132% |
| 2018 | 78.64 | 78.66 | 78.83 | 77.04 | 76.40 | 77.52 | 78.49 | 79.01 | 79.14 | 79.29 | 79.45 | 96% | |
| 2019 | 78.79 | 79.03 | 77.31 | 76.74 | 77.93 | 78.97 | 79.56 | 80.31 | 81.15 | 82.07 | 78% | ||
| 2020 | 76.98 | 75.69 | 74.72 | 75.51 | 76.14 | 76.33 | 73.45 | 70.26 | 66.75 | 296% | |||
| 2021 | 76.33 | 74.92 | 75.71 | 76.34 | 76.52 | 73.83 | 70.82 | 67.49 | 335% | ||||
| 2022 | 77.43 | 77.57 | 78.64 | 79.27 | 79.77 | 80.39 | 81.13 | 65% | |||||
| 2023 | 78.39 | 79.69 | 80.64 | 82.84 | 85.49 | 88.59 | 160% | ||||||
| 2024 | 78.89 | 80.78 | 83.29 | 86.42 | 90.17 | ||||||||
| 2025 | 80.78 | 83.29 | 86.42 | 90.17 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 132% |
| 2018 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | 96% | |
| 2019 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | 78% | ||
| 2020 | -1.8% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.6% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -3.5% | 296% | |||
| 2021 | -0.7% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | 335% | ||||
| 2022 | +1.1% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | 65% | |||||
| 2023 | +0.9% | +1.3% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +2.7% | +3.1% | 160% | ||||||
| 2024 | +0.5% | +1.9% | +2.5% | +3.1% | +3.8% | ||||||||
| 2025 | +1.9% | +2.5% | +3.1% | +3.8% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.