Old-Age Dependency Ratio
Best single metric for economic burden — ratio of 65+ population to working-age (15–64).
Key Insight
The share of Americans 65+ per 100 working-age adults has climbed to roughly 29–30 — up from ~19 in 2008 and ~21 in 2015 — meaning the ratio has risen by more than 50% in a single generation and is on track to exceed 35 by the mid-2030s as the last Baby Boomers age through the threshold.
28.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 64Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.8%, 32 bps above trend, a 1.4σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23.2 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 25.2 | 25.9 | 26.6 | 27.5 | 28.4 | 29.3 | 30.0 | 30.8 | 31.6 | 13% |
| 2019 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 25.2 | 25.9 | 26.7 | 27.6 | 28.6 | 29.4 | 30.3 | 31.3 | 32.3 | 7% | |
| 2020 | 24.5 | 25.3 | 26.0 | 26.8 | 27.7 | 28.6 | 29.4 | 30.4 | 31.4 | 32.5 | 8% | ||
| 2021 | 25.2 | 25.9 | 26.7 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 29.3 | 30.2 | 31.1 | 32.0 | 6% | |||
| 2022 | 26.0 | 26.7 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 29.4 | 30.3 | 31.2 | 32.1 | 6% | ||||
| 2023 | 26.8 | 27.7 | 28.6 | 29.5 | 30.5 | 31.6 | 32.8 | 8% | |||||
| 2024 | 27.7 | 28.6 | 29.5 | 30.6 | 31.7 | 32.8 | 11% | ||||||
| 2025 | 28.5 | 29.4 | 30.4 | 31.4 | 32.4 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 29.4 | 30.4 | 31.4 | 32.4 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | 13% |
| 2019 | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | 7% | |
| 2020 | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.1% | 8% | ||
| 2021 | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | 6% | |||
| 2022 | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | 6% | ||||
| 2023 | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | 8% | |||||
| 2024 | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | 11% | ||||||
| 2025 | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | ||||||||
| 2026 | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.