Labor Force Participation Rate, 55+
Whether economies are offsetting aging by extending working lives — key to fiscal sustainability.
37.1%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 65Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.1%, 138 bps below trend, a 3.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.4% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '25 | 38.1 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 37.7 | 37.8 | 37.9 | 37.6 | 37.5 | 37.6 | 37.5 | 37.4 | 37.7 | 37.3 | 37.3 | 36.6 | 36.6 | 36.5 | 36.4 | 36.9 | 48% |
| Sep '25 | 38.0 | 38.2 | 37.9 | 37.9 | 37.9 | 37.5 | 37.6 | 37.8 | 37.5 | 37.3 | 37.4 | 37.4 | 37.2 | 37.4 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 36.4 | 36.4 | 36.3 | 36.1 | 36.5 | 35% | |
| Nov '25 | 37.9 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.7 | 37.4 | 37.2 | 37.3 | 37.2 | 37.1 | 36.9 | 36.9 | 36.3 | 36.2 | 36.1 | 36.0 | 36.2 | 34% | ||||
| Dec '25 | 37.9 | 37.8 | 37.4 | 37.5 | 37.6 | 37.3 | 37.1 | 37.2 | 37.1 | 37.0 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.1 | 36.1 | 35.9 | 35.8 | 35.9 | 33% | |||||
| Jan '26 | 37.3 | 37.3 | 37.3 | 37.5 | 37.1 | 36.9 | 37.0 | 36.9 | 36.8 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 35.6 | 35.4 | 35.4 | 12% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | 37.3 | 37.2 | 37.4 | 37.0 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.6 | 36.4 | 36.3 | 35.6 | 35.5 | 35.4 | 35.2 | 35.0 | 6% | |||||||
| Mar '26 | 37.2 | 37.3 | 36.9 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.7 | 36.5 | 36.3 | 36.2 | 35.5 | 35.4 | 35.3 | 35.1 | 34.8 | 0% | ||||||||
| Apr '26 | 37.1 | 36.9 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.6 | 36.4 | 36.1 | 36.0 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 35.1 | 34.9 | 34.5 | ||||||||||
| May '26 | 36.9 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.6 | 36.4 | 36.1 | 36.0 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 35.1 | 34.9 | 34.5 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '25 | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 48% |
| Sep '25 | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 35% | |
| Nov '25 | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | 34% | |||
| Dec '25 | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | 33% | ||||
| Jan '26 | -1.1% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.7% | 12% | |||||
| Feb '26 | -1.1% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.0% | 6% | ||||||
| Mar '26 | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -2.1% | 0% | |||||||
| Apr '26 | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.2% | -2.3% | |||||||||
| May '26 | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.2% | -2.3% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.