Total Fertility Rate
Core measure of replacement shortfall — 2.1 is the replacement level for developed countries.
Key Insight
American total fertility has fallen to roughly 1.62 births per woman — more than 20% below the 2.1 replacement threshold and the lowest level ever recorded in US history — confirming that sub-replacement fertility is no longer a European or East Asian phenomenon but a universal feature of developed-economy demographics.
1.63births/woman
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 63Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 5 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 1 bps below trend, a 0.23σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.1% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (births/woman)
Projected value (births/woman)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1.77 | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.57 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.13 | 474% |
| 2018 | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.34 | 1.17 | 0.99 | 536% | |
| 2019 | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.58 | 1.53 | 1.48 | 1.43 | 100% | ||
| 2020 | 1.64 | 1.59 | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.47 | 1.39 | 1.30 | 688% | |||
| 2021 | 1.66 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.79 | 1.87 | 100% | ||||
| 2022 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.69 | 1.74 | 1.80 | 100% | |||||
| 2023 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 100% | ||||||
| 2024 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.67 | 1.70 | ||||||||
| 2025 | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.67 | 1.70 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | -0.1% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 474% |
| 2018 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 536% | |
| 2019 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 100% | ||
| 2020 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 688% | |||
| 2021 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 100% | ||||
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | 100% | |||||
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||||
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.