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World War II

War scope, mobilization, industrial balance, and home-front disruption during the Second World War. Updated just now.

War Scope

Active Interstate War Dyads

How many state-to-state war relationships were live in the system each year — captures WWII's geographic spread.

▼ -22.5% YoY

30.00dyads

Trend YoY growth is -22.5%, slowing by 21.8 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -14.3%, 8.3 pp above trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.

Level

YoY %

y = 130.5% − 21.8 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

States Participating in War

Shows when WWII shifted from a regional war into a truly global coalition war.

▼ -4.9% YoY

42.00states

Trend YoY growth is -4.9%, slowing by 16.9 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +5.0%, 9.9 pp above trend, a 0.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.

Level

YoY %

y = 113.5% − 16.9 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Mobilization

U.S. Industrial Production

Best high-frequency public series for the scale and timing of American industrial mobilization — the arsenal effect.

▲ +0.7% YoY

102.6index

Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 5 bps/year over the last 106Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.4%, 79 bps above trend, a 0.1σ deviation.

Level

YoY %

y = 6.3% − 5 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

U.S. National Defense Spending

Clearest fiscal mobilization series for the American war effort — pairs with industrial output.

▼ -5.9% YoY

1.1k$B

Trend YoY growth is -5.9%, slowing by 40 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 12 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.6%, 11.5 pp above trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 13.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jan '24.

Level

YoY %

y = 31.6% − 40 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Allies/Axis Military Personnel

WWII was partly a war of mass mobilization — the manpower balance is one of the most direct strategic series.

▲ +24.9% YoY

3.00×

Trend YoY growth is +24.9%, accelerating by 2.4 pp/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +7.1%, 17.7 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.

Level

YoY %

y = −8.9% + 2.4 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Industrial Balance

Allies/Axis Steel Output

Steel is a direct proxy for war-making capacity — tanks, ships, rail, artillery all bottleneck through heavy industry.

▲ +32.6% YoY

5.00×

Trend YoY growth is +32.6%, accelerating by 3.2 pp/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +19.1%, 13.5 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.

Level

YoY %

y = −12.5% + 3.2 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Allies/Axis Energy Consumption

Energy is the broadest physical input into mechanized war — explains why some offensives were sustainable and others were not.

▲ +23.3% YoY

5.50×

Trend YoY growth is +23.3%, accelerating by 2.2 pp/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +22.2%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.

Level

YoY %

y = −8.1% + 2.2 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Home Front

Global Trade

WWII was a collapse-and-rewiring of the world trading system — this captures the macro disruption directly.

▲ +3.1% YoY

125.0index

Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 8 bps/year over the last 45Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +8.7%, 5.6 pp above trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1949.

Level

YoY %

y = −0.5% + 8 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend