World War II
War scope, mobilization, industrial balance, and home-front disruption during the Second World War.
Updated 1946.
War Scope
How many state-to-state war relationships were live in the system each year — captures WWII's geographic spread.
30.00dyads
Trend YoY growth is -22.5%, slowing by 21.8 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -14.3%, 8.3 pp above trend, a 0.20σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = 130.5% − 21.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows when WWII shifted from a regional war into a truly global coalition war.
42.00states
Trend YoY growth is -4.9%, slowing by 16.9 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +5.0%, 9.9 pp above trend, a 0.28σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = 113.5% − 16.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Mobilization
Best high-frequency public series for the scale and timing of American industrial mobilization — the arsenal effect.
12.06index
Trend YoY growth is +10.2%, accelerating by 34 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 21 consecutive periods. Latest: -27.0%, 37.3 pp below trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Dec '44.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.4% + 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Clearest fiscal mobilization series for the American war effort — pairs with industrial output.
$84.8B
Trend YoY growth is +124.4%, accelerating by 9.3 pp/year over the last 15Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -12.8%, 137.3 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 103.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '44.
Level
YoY %
y = −14.6% + 9.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
WWII was partly a war of mass mobilization — the manpower balance is one of the most direct strategic series.
3.00×
Trend YoY growth is +24.9%, accelerating by 2.4 pp/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +7.1%, 17.7 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = −8.9% + 2.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Balance
Steel is a direct proxy for war-making capacity — tanks, ships, rail, artillery all bottleneck through heavy industry.
5.00×
Trend YoY growth is +32.6%, accelerating by 3.2 pp/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +19.1%, 13.5 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = −12.5% + 3.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy is the broadest physical input into mechanized war — explains why some offensives were sustainable and others were not.
5.50×
Trend YoY growth is +23.3%, accelerating by 2.2 pp/year over the last 14Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +22.2%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.17σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = −8.1% + 2.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Home Front
WWII was a collapse-and-rewiring of the world trading system — this captures the macro disruption directly.
80.00index
Trend YoY growth is -1.2%, slowing by 9 bps/year over the last 41Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 5 consecutive periods. Latest: +23.1%, 24.3 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 9.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1945.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.3% − 9 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
WWII's outcome was effectively determined by industrial mobilization asymmetry rather than battlefield events, and the data show the Allied material advantage became structurally irreversible by 1942-1943, far earlier than the military turning points conventionally cited.
World War II
War scope, mobilization, industrial balance, and home-front disruption during the Second World War.
Updated 1946.
War Scope
How many state-to-state war relationships were live in the system each year — captures WWII's geographic spread.
30.00dyads
Trend YoY growth is -22.5%, slowing by 21.8 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -14.3%, 8.3 pp above trend, a 0.20σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = 130.5% − 21.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows when WWII shifted from a regional war into a truly global coalition war.
42.00states
Trend YoY growth is -4.9%, slowing by 16.9 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +5.0%, 9.9 pp above trend, a 0.28σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = 113.5% − 16.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Mobilization
Best high-frequency public series for the scale and timing of American industrial mobilization — the arsenal effect.
12.06index
Trend YoY growth is +10.2%, accelerating by 34 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 21 consecutive periods. Latest: -27.0%, 37.3 pp below trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Dec '44.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.4% + 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Clearest fiscal mobilization series for the American war effort — pairs with industrial output.
$84.8B
Trend YoY growth is +124.4%, accelerating by 9.3 pp/year over the last 15Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -12.8%, 137.3 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 103.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '44.
Level
YoY %
y = −14.6% + 9.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
WWII was partly a war of mass mobilization — the manpower balance is one of the most direct strategic series.
3.00×
Trend YoY growth is +24.9%, accelerating by 2.4 pp/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +7.1%, 17.7 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = −8.9% + 2.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Balance
Steel is a direct proxy for war-making capacity — tanks, ships, rail, artillery all bottleneck through heavy industry.
5.00×
Trend YoY growth is +32.6%, accelerating by 3.2 pp/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +19.1%, 13.5 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = −12.5% + 3.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy is the broadest physical input into mechanized war — explains why some offensives were sustainable and others were not.
5.50×
Trend YoY growth is +23.3%, accelerating by 2.2 pp/year over the last 14Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +22.2%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.17σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944.
Level
YoY %
y = −8.1% + 2.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Home Front
WWII was a collapse-and-rewiring of the world trading system — this captures the macro disruption directly.
80.00index
Trend YoY growth is -1.2%, slowing by 9 bps/year over the last 41Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 5 consecutive periods. Latest: +23.1%, 24.3 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 9.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1945.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.3% − 9 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend