Allies/Axis Energy Consumption
Energy is the broadest physical input into mechanized war — explains why some offensives were sustainable and others were not.
5.50×
Trend YoY growth is +23.3%, accelerating by 2.2 pp/year over the last 14Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +22.2%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1944. At current levels, YoY would fall to +0.0% by Jan '46 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −8.1% + 2.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 | 1945 | 1946 | 1947 | 1948 | 1949 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1938 | 1.70 | 1.61 | 1.85 | 1.99 | 2.47 | 2.76 | 3.19 | 3.68 | 4.38 | 3.39 | 2.55 | 1.87 | 166% |
| 1939 | 2.00 | 2.14 | 2.37 | 3.03 | 3.48 | 4.16 | 4.95 | 6.09 | 6.78 | 7.59 | 8.55 | 50% | |
| 1940 | 2.20 | 2.46 | 3.19 | 3.71 | 4.48 | 5.40 | 6.71 | 8.32 | 10.49 | 13.43 | 18% | ||
| 1941 | 2.80 | 3.62 | 4.34 | 5.39 | 6.68 | 8.51 | 13.71 | 22.97 | 39.96 | 110% | |||
| 1942 | 3.20 | 4.14 | 5.15 | 6.36 | 8.10 | 12.41 | 19.75 | 32.60 | 79% | ||||
| 1943 | 3.80 | 4.54 | 5.41 | 6.65 | 8.08 | 9.87 | 12.12 | 7% | |||||
| 1944 | 4.50 | 5.41 | 6.66 | 8.12 | 9.97 | 12.32 | 9% | ||||||
| 1945 | 5.50 | 6.51 | 7.67 | 8.99 | 10.48 | ||||||||
| 1946 | 6.51 | 7.67 | 8.99 | 10.48 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 | 1945 | 1946 | 1947 | 1948 | 1949 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1938 | -10.5% | -5.1% | -7.3% | -9.4% | -11.6% | -13.8% | -16.0% | -18.1% | -20.3% | -22.5% | -24.7% | -26.8% | 166% |
| 1939 | +17.6% | +6.9% | +7.5% | +8.2% | +8.8% | +9.4% | +10.1% | +10.7% | +11.3% | +12.0% | +12.6% | 50% | |
| 1940 | +10.0% | +11.8% | +13.8% | +15.9% | +17.9% | +19.9% | +22.0% | +24.0% | +26.0% | +28.1% | 18% | ||
| 1941 | +27.3% | +29.2% | +35.6% | +42.0% | +48.4% | +54.8% | +61.2% | +67.6% | +74.0% | 110% | |||
| 1942 | +14.3% | +29.5% | +35.4% | +41.4% | +47.3% | +53.2% | +59.1% | +65.1% | 79% | ||||
| 1943 | +18.8% | +19.5% | +20.2% | +20.8% | +21.5% | +22.1% | +22.8% | 7% | |||||
| 1944 | +18.4% | +20.2% | +21.1% | +21.9% | +22.7% | +23.6% | 9% | ||||||
| 1945 | +22.2% | +18.4% | +17.8% | +17.2% | +16.6% | ||||||||
| 1946 | +18.4% | +17.8% | +17.2% | +16.6% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.