World War I
War finance, military scale, industrial capacity, and human cost during the First World War.
Updated 1925.
War Finance
Wartime inflation accelerated sharply from 1915 through 1920 — the clearest high-frequency signal of how war finance transmitted into domestic prices.
17.30index
Trend YoY growth is +0.6%, slowing by 91 bps/year over the last 11Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 11 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 61 bps below trend, a 0.08σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 85 bps due to an tough comparison base from Dec '23.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% − 91 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
UK debt-to-GDP rose from ~25% in 1913 to over 130% by 1919 — the most dramatic fiscal transformation of the war.
155.0%
Trend YoY growth is +7.8%, slowing by 7.4 pp/year over the last 20Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 5 consecutive periods. Latest: -5.0%, 12.8 pp below trend, a 0.90σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 9.3% − 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military Scale
Annual military personnel counts for all major belligerents directly quantify the scale of mass mobilization that defined WWI.
4.0kthousands
Trend YoY growth is -23.1%, slowing by 9.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -50.0%, 26.9 pp below trend, a 0.50σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 59.5% − 9.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military expenditure tracks fiscal commitment independently from personnel, separating the capital-intensive dimension from the labor-intensive one.
800.0kthousands £
Trend YoY growth is -9.9%, slowing by 8.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -60.0%, 50.1 pp below trend, a 0.81σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 67.6% − 8.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Capacity
Steel production is the most direct measure of a nation's ability to sustain industrialized warfare — divergence after 1915 tracks the war's material outcome.
80.0kthousands tons
Trend YoY growth is -3.5%, slowing by 62 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.3%, 17.8 pp above trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.1% − 62 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The US grew substantially as a supplier while France and Russia contracted sharply — complicating any single-narrative reading of the war's economic impact.
6.4k2011 USD PPP
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 24 bps/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.38σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.3% + 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Human Cost
England and Wales mortality shows both wartime elevation and the 1918 influenza spike — which exceeded combat mortality in most age groups.
12.00per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: -1.6%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.2% + 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
France's mortality series is sharper and more sustained than the UK's, reflecting higher proportional battlefield losses.
17.20per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.2%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.13σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.4% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
WWI's most lasting economic transformation was not the battlefield destruction but the wholesale restructuring of state fiscal capacity and price levels, which permanently shifted the relationship between governments and their economies.
World War I
War finance, military scale, industrial capacity, and human cost during the First World War.
Updated 1925.
War Finance
Wartime inflation accelerated sharply from 1915 through 1920 — the clearest high-frequency signal of how war finance transmitted into domestic prices.
17.30index
Trend YoY growth is +0.6%, slowing by 91 bps/year over the last 11Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 11 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 61 bps below trend, a 0.08σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 85 bps due to an tough comparison base from Dec '23.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% − 91 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
UK debt-to-GDP rose from ~25% in 1913 to over 130% by 1919 — the most dramatic fiscal transformation of the war.
155.0%
Trend YoY growth is +7.8%, slowing by 7.4 pp/year over the last 20Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 5 consecutive periods. Latest: -5.0%, 12.8 pp below trend, a 0.90σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 9.3% − 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military Scale
Annual military personnel counts for all major belligerents directly quantify the scale of mass mobilization that defined WWI.
4.0kthousands
Trend YoY growth is -23.1%, slowing by 9.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -50.0%, 26.9 pp below trend, a 0.50σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 59.5% − 9.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military expenditure tracks fiscal commitment independently from personnel, separating the capital-intensive dimension from the labor-intensive one.
800.0kthousands £
Trend YoY growth is -9.9%, slowing by 8.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -60.0%, 50.1 pp below trend, a 0.81σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 67.6% − 8.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Capacity
Steel production is the most direct measure of a nation's ability to sustain industrialized warfare — divergence after 1915 tracks the war's material outcome.
80.0kthousands tons
Trend YoY growth is -3.5%, slowing by 62 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.3%, 17.8 pp above trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.1% − 62 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The US grew substantially as a supplier while France and Russia contracted sharply — complicating any single-narrative reading of the war's economic impact.
6.4k2011 USD PPP
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 24 bps/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.38σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.3% + 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Human Cost
England and Wales mortality shows both wartime elevation and the 1918 influenza spike — which exceeded combat mortality in most age groups.
12.00per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: -1.6%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.2% + 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
France's mortality series is sharper and more sustained than the UK's, reflecting higher proportional battlefield losses.
17.20per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.2%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.13σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.4% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend