World War I

War finance, military scale, industrial capacity, and human cost during the First World War. Most recent data from 1925.

War Finance

UK Government Debt (% GDP)

UK debt-to-GDP rose from ~25% in 1913 to over 130% by 1919 — the most dramatic fiscal transformation of the war.

▲ +7.8% YoY

155.0%

Trend YoY growth is +7.8%, slowing by 7.4 pp/year over the last 20Y. Latest: -5.0%, 12.8 pp below trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1924.

Level

YoY Change (bps)

y = 9.3% 7 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Military Scale

Military Personnel, Major Powers

Annual military personnel counts for all major belligerents directly quantify the scale of mass mobilization that defined WWI.

▼ -23.1% YoY

4.0kthousands

Trend YoY growth is -23.1%, slowing by 9.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -50.0%, 26.9 pp below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.

Level

YoY %

y = 59.5% 9.2 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Military Expenditure, Major Powers

Military expenditure tracks fiscal commitment independently from personnel, separating the capital-intensive dimension from the labor-intensive one.

▼ -9.9% YoY

800.0kthousands £

Trend YoY growth is -9.9%, slowing by 8.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -60.0%, 50.1 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.

Level

YoY %

y = 67.6% 8.6 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Industrial Capacity

Iron & Steel Production, Major Powers

Steel production is the most direct measure of a nation's ability to sustain industrialized warfare — divergence after 1915 tracks the war's material outcome.

▼ -3.5% YoY

80.0kthousands tons

Trend YoY growth is -3.5%, slowing by 62 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.3%, 17.8 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.

Level

YoY %

y = 2.1% 62 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

GDP per Capita, Major Belligerents

The US grew substantially as a supplier while France and Russia contracted sharply — complicating any single-narrative reading of the war's economic impact.

▲ +3.1% YoY

6.4k2011 USD PPP

Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 24 bps/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.

Level

YoY %

y = −0.3% + 24 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Human Cost

UK All-Cause Death Rate

England and Wales mortality shows both wartime elevation and the 1918 influenza spike — which exceeded combat mortality in most age groups.

▼ -0.4% YoY

12.00per 1,000

Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: -1.6%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1924.

Level

YoY %

y = −2.2% + 7 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

France All-Cause Death Rate

France's mortality series is sharper and more sustained than the UK's, reflecting higher proportional battlefield losses.

▼ -0.2% YoY

17.20per 1,000

Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.2%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.1σ deviation.

Level

YoY %

y = 0.4% 2 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend