World War I
War finance, military scale, industrial capacity, and human cost during the First World War. Most recent data from 1925.
War Finance
No data
UK debt-to-GDP rose from ~25% in 1913 to over 130% by 1919 — the most dramatic fiscal transformation of the war.
155.0%
Trend YoY growth is +7.8%, slowing by 7.4 pp/year over the last 20Y. Latest: -5.0%, 12.8 pp below trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 9.3% − 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military Scale
Annual military personnel counts for all major belligerents directly quantify the scale of mass mobilization that defined WWI.
4.0kthousands
Trend YoY growth is -23.1%, slowing by 9.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -50.0%, 26.9 pp below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 59.5% − 9.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military expenditure tracks fiscal commitment independently from personnel, separating the capital-intensive dimension from the labor-intensive one.
800.0kthousands £
Trend YoY growth is -9.9%, slowing by 8.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -60.0%, 50.1 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 67.6% − 8.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Capacity
Steel production is the most direct measure of a nation's ability to sustain industrialized warfare — divergence after 1915 tracks the war's material outcome.
80.0kthousands tons
Trend YoY growth is -3.5%, slowing by 62 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.3%, 17.8 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.1% − 62 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The US grew substantially as a supplier while France and Russia contracted sharply — complicating any single-narrative reading of the war's economic impact.
6.4k2011 USD PPP
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 24 bps/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.3% + 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Human Cost
England and Wales mortality shows both wartime elevation and the 1918 influenza spike — which exceeded combat mortality in most age groups.
12.00per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: -1.6%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.2% + 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
France's mortality series is sharper and more sustained than the UK's, reflecting higher proportional battlefield losses.
17.20per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.2%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.4% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
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World War I
War finance, military scale, industrial capacity, and human cost during the First World War. Most recent data from 1925.
War Finance
No data
UK debt-to-GDP rose from ~25% in 1913 to over 130% by 1919 — the most dramatic fiscal transformation of the war.
155.0%
Trend YoY growth is +7.8%, slowing by 7.4 pp/year over the last 20Y. Latest: -5.0%, 12.8 pp below trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 9.3% − 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military Scale
Annual military personnel counts for all major belligerents directly quantify the scale of mass mobilization that defined WWI.
4.0kthousands
Trend YoY growth is -23.1%, slowing by 9.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -50.0%, 26.9 pp below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 59.5% − 9.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Military expenditure tracks fiscal commitment independently from personnel, separating the capital-intensive dimension from the labor-intensive one.
800.0kthousands £
Trend YoY growth is -9.9%, slowing by 8.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -60.0%, 50.1 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 67.6% − 8.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Capacity
Steel production is the most direct measure of a nation's ability to sustain industrialized warfare — divergence after 1915 tracks the war's material outcome.
80.0kthousands tons
Trend YoY growth is -3.5%, slowing by 62 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.3%, 17.8 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.1% − 62 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The US grew substantially as a supplier while France and Russia contracted sharply — complicating any single-narrative reading of the war's economic impact.
6.4k2011 USD PPP
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 24 bps/year over the last 14Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.3% + 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Human Cost
England and Wales mortality shows both wartime elevation and the 1918 influenza spike — which exceeded combat mortality in most age groups.
12.00per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: -1.6%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.2% + 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
France's mortality series is sharper and more sustained than the UK's, reflecting higher proportional battlefield losses.
17.20per 1,000
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.2%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.4% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend