Iron & Steel Production, Major Powers
Steel production is the most direct measure of a nation's ability to sustain industrialized warfare — divergence after 1915 tracks the war's material outcome.
80.0kthousands tons
Trend YoY growth is -3.5%, slowing by 62 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.3%, 17.8 pp above trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from 1919. At current levels, YoY would fall to +0.0% by Dec '20 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.1% − 62 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (thousands tons)
Projected value (thousands tons)
| Forecast made in | 1913 | 1914 | 1915 | 1916 | 1917 | 1918 | 1919 | 1920 | 1921 | 1922 | 1923 | 1924 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1913 | 110.0k | 118.5k | 98.1k | 93.8k | 106.1k | 118.6k | 114.3k | 80.9k | 93.6k | 110.6k | 132.3k | 159.9k | 137% |
| 1914 | 90.0k | 74.8k | 65.2k | 66.8k | 67.0k | 57.4k | 35.7k | 35.6k | 13.6k | 4.3k | 1.1k | 338% | |
| 1915 | 85.0k | 72.9k | 77.5k | 81.3k | 73.2k | 48.3k | 51.9k | 31.5k | 17.8k | 9.3k | 240% | ||
| 1916 | 95.0k | 94.2k | 103.8k | 98.5k | 68.7k | 78.3k | 76.4k | 74.3k | 71.9k | 98% | |||
| 1917 | 105.0k | 118.8k | 117.3k | 85.0k | 100.4k | 130.3k | 174.4k | 240.7k | 194% | ||||
| 1918 | 100.0k | 111.6k | 81.1k | 96.2k | 119.7k | 154.2k | 205.2k | 75% | |||||
| 1919 | 70.0k | 53.8k | 56.2k | 35.8k | 20.5k | 10.4k | 262% | ||||||
| 1920 | 80.0k | 71.8k | 61.8k | 51.1k | 40.4k | ||||||||
| 1921 | 71.8k | 61.8k | 51.1k | 40.4k |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 1913 | 1914 | 1915 | 1916 | 1917 | 1918 | 1919 | 1920 | 1921 | 1922 | 1923 | 1924 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1913 | +4.8% | +7.7% | +9.0% | +10.3% | +11.7% | +13.0% | +14.3% | +15.6% | +16.9% | +18.3% | +19.6% | +20.9% | 137% |
| 1914 | -18.2% | -16.8% | -23.3% | -29.7% | -36.1% | -42.6% | -49.0% | -55.5% | -61.9% | -68.3% | -74.7% | 338% | |
| 1915 | -5.6% | -14.3% | -18.4% | -22.6% | -26.8% | -31.0% | -35.1% | -39.3% | -43.5% | -47.7% | 240% | ||
| 1916 | +11.8% | -0.8% | -1.1% | -1.5% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.5% | -2.8% | -3.1% | 98% | |||
| 1917 | +10.5% | +13.1% | +17.3% | +21.4% | +25.6% | +29.7% | +33.9% | +38.0% | 194% | ||||
| 1918 | -4.8% | +11.6% | +15.9% | +20.2% | +24.5% | +28.8% | +33.1% | 75% | |||||
| 1919 | -30.0% | -23.2% | -29.8% | -36.3% | -42.8% | -49.4% | 262% | ||||||
| 1920 | +14.3% | -10.3% | -13.8% | -17.4% | -20.9% | ||||||||
| 1921 | -10.3% | -13.8% | -17.4% | -20.9% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.