U.S. Consumer Price Index
Wartime inflation accelerated sharply from 1915 through 1920 — the clearest high-frequency signal of how war finance transmitted into domestic prices.
17.30index
Trend YoY growth is +0.6%, slowing by 91 bps/year over the last 11Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 11 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 61 bps below trend, a 0.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 85 bps due to an tough comparison base from Dec 1. At current levels, YoY would rise to +1.2% by Mar '25 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% − 91 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (index)
Projected value (index)
| Forecast made in | May '24 | Jun '24 | Jul '24 | Aug '24 | Sep '24 | Oct '24 | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '24 | 17.00 | 17.22 | 17.39 | 17.26 | 17.34 | 17.41 | 17.38 | 17.35 | 17.33 | 17.20 | 17.07 | 16.94 | 16.92 | 16.89 | 16.96 | 16.83 | 16.90 | 16.98 | 16.95 | 17.02 | 17.02 | 238% |
| Jun '24 | 17.00 | 17.27 | 17.12 | 17.17 | 17.22 | 17.18 | 17.13 | 17.08 | 16.93 | 16.79 | 16.64 | 16.60 | 16.55 | 16.60 | 16.46 | 16.50 | 16.55 | 16.51 | 16.55 | 16.30 | 81% | |
| Jul '24 | 17.10 | 17.01 | 17.05 | 17.08 | 17.02 | 16.95 | 16.89 | 16.72 | 16.57 | 16.41 | 16.34 | 16.28 | 16.31 | 16.15 | 16.18 | 16.21 | 16.15 | 16.18 | 15.73 | 88% | ||
| Aug '24 | 17.00 | 17.01 | 17.03 | 16.96 | 16.89 | 16.81 | 16.64 | 16.48 | 16.31 | 16.24 | 16.16 | 16.19 | 16.02 | 16.04 | 16.06 | 15.99 | 16.01 | 15.48 | 164% | |||
| Sep '24 | 17.10 | 17.05 | 16.98 | 16.91 | 16.83 | 16.66 | 16.50 | 16.33 | 16.26 | 16.19 | 16.21 | 16.04 | 16.07 | 16.09 | 16.02 | 16.04 | 15.53 | 184% | ||||
| Oct '24 | 17.20 | 17.03 | 16.96 | 16.89 | 16.73 | 16.57 | 16.41 | 16.34 | 16.27 | 16.30 | 16.14 | 16.17 | 16.20 | 16.13 | 16.16 | 15.71 | 176% | |||||
| Nov '24 | 17.20 | 17.02 | 16.95 | 16.79 | 16.64 | 16.48 | 16.42 | 16.36 | 16.40 | 16.24 | 16.28 | 16.31 | 16.25 | 16.28 | 15.89 | |||||||
| Dec '24 | 17.30 | 17.04 | 16.89 | 16.74 | 16.59 | 16.54 | 16.49 | 16.54 | 16.39 | 16.43 | 16.48 | 16.43 | 16.47 | 16.17 | ||||||||
| Jan '25 | 17.04 | 16.89 | 16.74 | 16.59 | 16.54 | 16.49 | 16.54 | 16.39 | 16.43 | 16.48 | 16.43 | 16.47 | 16.17 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | May '24 | Jun '24 | Jul '24 | Aug '24 | Sep '24 | Oct '24 | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '24 | +0.6% | +1.3% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.8% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.8% | 238% |
| Jun '24 | +0.0% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.6% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -3.5% | -3.8% | -4.0% | -4.3% | -4.6% | 81% | |
| Jul '24 | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.6% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.8% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.6% | -5.0% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -6.1% | -6.5% | -6.9% | 88% | ||
| Aug '24 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -1.5% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.8% | -3.2% | -3.6% | -4.1% | -4.5% | -4.9% | -5.3% | -5.8% | -6.2% | -6.6% | -7.0% | -7.5% | -7.9% | 164% | |||
| Sep '24 | -0.6% | -1.4% | -1.9% | -2.3% | -2.7% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -3.9% | -4.4% | -4.8% | -5.2% | -5.6% | -6.0% | -6.5% | -6.9% | -7.3% | -7.7% | 184% | ||||
| Oct '24 | -0.6% | -1.6% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -3.9% | -4.3% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.4% | -5.8% | -6.2% | -6.6% | -7.0% | 176% | |||||
| Nov '24 | -0.6% | -1.6% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.4% | -3.8% | -4.1% | -4.5% | -4.8% | -5.2% | -5.5% | -5.9% | -6.2% | |||||||
| Dec '24 | +0.0% | -1.5% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.8% | -5.1% | ||||||||
| Jan '25 | -1.5% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.8% | -5.1% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.