Key Insight

Menlo Park is experiencing a structural population decline that is decoupling from its still-appreciating housing market, creating a hollowing-out dynamic where rising property values are actively shrinking the community.

Generated by Claude on Apr 15, 2026

Menlo Park, CA

Housing, demographics, economy, schools, and public safety indicators for Menlo Park, California.

Updated Apr 1.

Exclude COVID

Housing

Median Home Sale Price

Zillow Home Value Index for middle-tier homes.

▲ +4.9% YoY

$2.9M

Trend YoY growth is +4.9%, slowing by 11 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +7.8%, 2.9 pp above trend, a 0.51σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.

Level

YoY %

y = 7.7% 11 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Median Rent

Zillow Observed Rent Index for all home types.

▲ +4.6% YoY

4.0kUSD/mo

Trend YoY growth is +4.6%, accelerating by 48 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +6.5%, 1.9 pp above trend, a 0.61σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +2.4% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.

Level

YoY %

y = 0.3% + 48 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Demographics

Economy

Unemployment Rate

Share of the labor force unemployed and seeking work.

San Mateo County (FRED LAUS)

▼ -0.2% YoY

3.5%

Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.8 pp/year over the last 20Y. Latest: -0.3%, 10 bps below trend, a 0.05σ deviation.

Level

YoY Change (bps)

y = 0.2% 2 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Public Safety

Violent Crime Rate

Violent crimes (murder, rape, robbery, assault) per 100k residents.

Menlo Park PD (FBI CDE)

▲ +13.7% YoY

182.4per 100k

Trend YoY growth is +13.7%, accelerating by 1.2 pp/year over the last 19Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -19.1%, 32.8 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 24.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2024.

Level

YoY %

y = −8.8% + 1.2 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Property Crime Rate

Property crimes (burglary, theft, vehicle theft) per 100k residents.

Menlo Park PD (FBI CDE)

▼ -2.4% YoY

1.5kper 100k

Trend YoY growth is -2.4%, slowing by 7 bps/year over the last 19Y. Latest: -13.9%, 11.5 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.

Level

YoY %

y = −1.1% 7 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend