Property Crime Rate
Property crimes (burglary, theft, vehicle theft) per 100k residents.
1.5kper 100k
Trend YoY growth is -2.5%, slowing by 8 bps/year over the last 19Y. Latest: -14.6%, 12.0 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024. At current levels, YoY would rise to +0.0% by Jan '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.0% − 8 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (per 100k)
Projected value (per 100k)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1.9k | 2.0k | 1.9k | 2.4k | 2.5k | 2.8k | 2.0k | 2.0k | 2.1k | 1.8k | 2.2k | 2.7k | 3.3k | 409% |
| 2018 | 1.7k | 1.7k | 2.2k | 2.2k | 2.2k | 1.8k | 1.8k | 1.8k | 1.6k | 1.6k | 1.6k | 1.7k | 112% | |
| 2019 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2.6k | 3.1k | 2.2k | 2.2k | 2.3k | 2.0k | 2.7k | 3.6k | 5.0k | 835% | ||
| 2020 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2.8k | 2.1k | 2.1k | 2.2k | 1.9k | 2.4k | 3.0k | 3.9k | 507% | |||
| 2022 | 1.8k | 1.4k | 1.3k | 1.2k | 958.2 | 543.8 | 276.6 | 124.3 | 737% | |||||
| 2023 | 1.7k | 1.4k | 1.2k | 946.0 | 510.5 | 235.2 | 89.81 | 505% | ||||||
| 2024 | 1.8k | 1.7k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 82% | |||||||
| 2025 | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.6k | |||||||||
| 2026 | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.6k |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +3.0% | +5.4% | +7.1% | +8.8% | +10.5% | +12.2% | +13.9% | +15.5% | +17.2% | +18.9% | +20.6% | +22.3% | +24.0% | 409% |
| 2018 | -8.8% | -0.8% | -0.5% | -0.1% | +0.2% | +0.6% | +0.9% | +1.3% | +1.6% | +2.0% | +2.3% | +2.6% | 112% | |
| 2019 | +26.9% | +14.2% | +16.9% | +19.6% | +22.3% | +25.0% | +27.7% | +30.4% | +33.1% | +35.8% | +38.5% | 835% | ||
| 2020 | +0.9% | +11.5% | +13.8% | +16.1% | +18.3% | +20.6% | +22.9% | +25.2% | +27.4% | +29.7% | 507% | |||
| 2022 | -20.9% | -19.7% | -25.5% | -31.5% | -37.4% | -43.2% | -49.1% | -55.0% | 737% | |||||
| 2023 | -1.7% | -22.4% | -30.3% | -38.2% | -46.0% | -53.9% | -61.8% | 505% | ||||||
| 2024 | +2.8% | -2.6% | -1.8% | -1.0% | -0.3% | +0.5% | 82% | |||||||
| 2025 | -14.6% | -2.7% | -0.4% | +1.9% | +4.3% | |||||||||
| 2026 | -2.7% | -0.4% | +1.9% | +4.3% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.