Unemployment Rate
Share of the labor force unemployed and seeking work.
3.9%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: -0.4%, 19 bps below trend, a 0.11σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 59 bps due to an tough comparison base from Sep 1. At current levels, YoY would rise to +0.3% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY Change
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | Oct '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb '26 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 73% | ||
| Mar '26 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 56% | |||
| Apr '26 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 87% | ||||
| May '26 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 133% | |||||
| Jun '26 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 25% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 38% | |||||||
| Aug '26 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 25% | ||||||||
| Sep '26 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | ||||||||||
| Oct '26 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | Oct '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb '26 | -0.2% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 73% |
| Mar '26 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | 56% | |
| Apr '26 | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.2% | 87% | ||
| May '26 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | 133% | |||
| Jun '26 | +0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | 25% | ||||
| Jul '26 | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | 38% | |||||
| Aug '26 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | 25% | ||||||
| Sep '26 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | ||||||||
| Oct '26 | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.