Violent Crime Rate
Violent crimes (murder, rape, robbery, assault) per 100k residents.
182.4per 100k
Trend YoY growth is +13.7%, accelerating by 1.2 pp/year over the last 19Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -20.2%, 33.9 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 23.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2024. At current levels, YoY would rise to +0.0% by Jan '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = −8.7% + 1.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (per 100k)
Projected value (per 100k)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 155.0 | 231.1 | 202.9 | 255.9 | 287.0 | 596.6 | 653.3 | 607.5 | 575.9 | 486.3 | 1.4k | 4.0k | 12.6k | 858% |
| 2018 | 123.9 | 154.4 | 189.8 | 208.3 | 308.3 | 457.3 | 418.8 | 391.7 | 326.7 | 610.6 | 1.2k | 2.4k | 430% | |
| 2019 | 143.4 | 191.7 | 212.9 | 325.5 | 477.0 | 440.6 | 415.3 | 348.9 | 700.8 | 1.5k | 3.2k | 548% | ||
| 2020 | 148.6 | 151.5 | 148.7 | 277.0 | 231.9 | 198.3 | 151.3 | 119.7 | 90.16 | 64.47 | 51% | |||
| 2022 | 293.6 | 630.6 | 621.3 | 618.4 | 544.2 | 1.8k | 6.3k | 24.0k | 1123% | |||||
| 2023 | 256.1 | 351.2 | 322.0 | 263.6 | 390.8 | 593.8 | 924.1 | 374% | ||||||
| 2024 | 228.6 | 229.3 | 170.3 | 147.1 | 116.8 | 84.68 | 101% | |||||||
| 2025 | 182.4 | 46.80 | -4.42 | 1.97 | -1.57 | |||||||||
| 2026 | 46.80 | -4.42 | 1.97 | -1.57 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +74.2% | +49.1% | +63.8% | +78.4% | +93.2% | +107.8% | +122.5% | +137.2% | +151.9% | +166.6% | +181.3% | +196.0% | +210.7% | 858% |
| 2018 | -20.1% | +24.6% | +32.4% | +40.2% | +48.0% | +55.8% | +63.5% | +71.3% | +79.1% | +86.9% | +94.7% | +102.5% | 430% | |
| 2019 | +15.7% | +33.7% | +43.3% | +52.9% | +62.5% | +72.1% | +81.7% | +91.3% | +100.9% | +110.5% | +120.1% | 548% | ||
| 2020 | +3.6% | +2.0% | -1.8% | -5.6% | -9.4% | -13.3% | -17.1% | -20.9% | -24.7% | -28.5% | 51% | |||
| 2022 | +97.6% | +114.8% | +142.6% | +170.5% | +198.4% | +226.2% | +254.1% | +282.0% | 1123% | |||||
| 2023 | -12.8% | +37.1% | +40.8% | +44.5% | +48.2% | +51.9% | +55.6% | 374% | ||||||
| 2024 | -10.7% | +0.3% | -6.7% | -13.6% | -20.6% | -27.5% | 101% | |||||||
| 2025 | -20.2% | -74.3% | -109.4% | -144.5% | -179.7% | |||||||||
| 2026 | -74.3% | -109.4% | -144.5% | -179.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.