Political polarization in the United States
DW-NOMINATE party medians from Voteview — the canonical direct measure of congressional polarization. Most recent data from Jan 1, 2025.
Key Insight
US polarization is now an elite-driven, education-sorted phenomenon far more than a racial one, and the direct measures contradict the popular 'America is coming apart along racial lines' framing.
Distance between the Republican and Democratic caucus medians on DW-NOMINATE dim-1 — the canonical direct measure of congressional polarization. Higher = more polarized.
0.93DW1
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: +0.0%, 2 bps above trend, a 1.0σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Same measure applied to the Senate — tends to lag the House but has climbed in parallel since the 1980s as moderate senators retired or switched parties.
0.92DW1
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: +0.0%, 2 bps above trend, a 0.8σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Median DW-NOMINATE score of the House Republican caucus — isolates how much of the gap is driven by the GOP moving right vs. Democrats moving left.
0.53DW1
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: +0.0%, 2 bps above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Median DW-NOMINATE score of the House Democratic caucus — the Democrats' shift is smaller than the GOP's in most post-1980 studies; this series shows whether that still holds.
-0.39DW1
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: -0.0%, 1 bps below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Share of white voters choosing the Democratic presidential candidate — decomposes the gap from the white side. The structural post-1980 floor sits near 40%.
42.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Share of Black voters choosing the Democratic presidential candidate — decomposes the gap from the non-white side. Consistently 80%+ for 50 years; the recent slow drift off that level is the main story.
83.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Share of Hispanic voters choosing the Democratic presidential candidate — the demographic whose partisan alignment is shifting fastest. Starts 1980 (first cycle with reliable exit-poll samples).
52.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Percentage-point gap between college and non-college Democratic presidential vote share (all voters, all races). The canonical direct measure of educational polarization — signed with the recent direction: positive means college-educated voters are more Democratic. Near zero through 2012, then opens after 2016.
12.0pp
Level
Change (pp)
Explore
Political polarization in the United States
DW-NOMINATE party medians from Voteview — the canonical direct measure of congressional polarization. Most recent data from Jan 1, 2025.
Key Insight
US polarization is now an elite-driven, education-sorted phenomenon far more than a racial one, and the direct measures contradict the popular 'America is coming apart along racial lines' framing.
Distance between the Republican and Democratic caucus medians on DW-NOMINATE dim-1 — the canonical direct measure of congressional polarization. Higher = more polarized.
0.93DW1
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: +0.0%, 2 bps above trend, a 1.0σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Same measure applied to the Senate — tends to lag the House but has climbed in parallel since the 1980s as moderate senators retired or switched parties.
0.92DW1
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: +0.0%, 2 bps above trend, a 0.8σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Median DW-NOMINATE score of the House Republican caucus — isolates how much of the gap is driven by the GOP moving right vs. Democrats moving left.
0.53DW1
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: +0.0%, 2 bps above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Median DW-NOMINATE score of the House Democratic caucus — the Democrats' shift is smaller than the GOP's in most post-1980 studies; this series shows whether that still holds.
-0.39DW1
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 166Y. Latest: -0.0%, 1 bps below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Share of white voters choosing the Democratic presidential candidate — decomposes the gap from the white side. The structural post-1980 floor sits near 40%.
42.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Share of Black voters choosing the Democratic presidential candidate — decomposes the gap from the non-white side. Consistently 80%+ for 50 years; the recent slow drift off that level is the main story.
83.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Share of Hispanic voters choosing the Democratic presidential candidate — the demographic whose partisan alignment is shifting fastest. Starts 1980 (first cycle with reliable exit-poll samples).
52.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Percentage-point gap between college and non-college Democratic presidential vote share (all voters, all races). The canonical direct measure of educational polarization — signed with the recent direction: positive means college-educated voters are more Democratic. Near zero through 2012, then opens after 2016.
12.0pp
Level
Change (pp)