House Democratic Caucus Median
Median DW-NOMINATE score of the House Democratic caucus — the Democrats' shift is smaller than the GOP's in most post-1980 studies; this series shows whether that still holds.
-0.39DW1
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0.0 pp/year over the last 166Y. Latest: -0.0%, 0.0 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.0% − 0.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (DW1)
Projected value (DW1)
| Forecast made in | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | -0.40 | -0.45 | -0.51 | -0.47 | -0.56 | -0.51 | -0.63 | -0.53 | -0.68 | -0.55 | -0.73 | -0.58 | -0.79 | -0.62 | -0.86 | -0.65 | -0.92 | -1.21 | -1.51 | 1700% |
| 2013 | -0.39 | -0.41 | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.46 | -0.43 | -0.47 | -0.43 | -0.48 | -0.44 | -0.50 | -0.46 | -0.53 | -0.47 | -0.55 | -0.64 | -0.73 | 500% | ||
| 2015 | -0.40 | -0.37 | -0.33 | -0.34 | -0.28 | -0.31 | -0.22 | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.26 | -0.12 | -0.24 | -0.08 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 1000% | ||||
| 2017 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.41 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.40 | -0.42 | -0.41 | -0.43 | -0.42 | -0.45 | -0.48 | -0.51 | 100% | ||||||
| 2019 | -0.38 | -0.37 | -0.36 | -0.37 | -0.35 | -0.37 | -0.35 | -0.37 | -0.34 | -0.31 | -0.28 | 100% | ||||||||
| 2021 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.39 | -0.39 | -0.39 | -0.39 | 100% | ||||||||||
| 2023 | -0.39 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.40 | -0.41 | -0.42 | -0.44 | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.41 | -0.43 | -0.45 | |||||||||||||||
| 2026 | -0.40 | -0.41 | -0.43 | -0.45 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | -0.1% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 1700% |
| 2013 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 500% | ||
| 2015 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 1000% | ||||
| 2017 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||
| 2019 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||||
| 2021 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||||||
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | |||||||||||||||
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.