Senate Party Median Gap (DW-NOMINATE)
Same measure applied to the Senate — tends to lag the House but has climbed in parallel since the 1980s as moderate senators retired or switched parties.
0.92DW1
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 0.0 pp/year over the last 166Y. Latest: +0.0%, 0.0 pp above trend, a 0.8σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.0% + 0.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (DW1)
Projected value (DW1)
| Forecast made in | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.21 | 1.32 | 194% |
| 2013 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.21 | 1.32 | 213% | ||
| 2015 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 100% | ||||
| 2017 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 100% | ||||||
| 2019 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 100% | ||||||||
| 2021 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 1.16 | 1.26 | 233% | ||||||||||
| 2023 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.22 | 233% | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.98 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 194% |
| 2013 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 213% | ||
| 2015 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||
| 2017 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||
| 2019 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||||
| 2021 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 233% | ||||||||||
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 233% | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | |||||||||||||||
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.