Watches
Is the watch market moving broadly, or only in a few famous corners? Broad market index, brand-level signals, and macro context for the secondary luxury watch market.
Updated -42 days ago.
Market Baseline
Broadest secondary-market index — answers whether the watch market is rising, flat, or falling.
1.4kindex
Trend YoY growth is -7.6%, slowing by 4.2 pp/year over the last 6Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 18 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.9%, 10.4 pp above trend, a 1.00σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 71 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +5.3% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 18.0% − 4.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Core Market
Clearest proxy for mainstream high-end demand — Rolex has the deepest liquidity in the secondary market.
29.6kindex
Trend YoY growth is -2.6%, slowing by 2.9 pp/year over the last 8Y. Latest: +8.9%, 11.5 pp above trend, a 0.75σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +7.6% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 20.7% − 2.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
One iconic reference that grounds the abstract indexes in a specific object people recognize.
$12.5k
Trend YoY growth is +10.7%, slowing by 7.3 pp/year over the last 10Y.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.7% − 7.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Contrasting Segment
Tracks the collectible top end of the market — often diverges from the Rolex-dominated mainstream core.
1.4kindex
Trend YoY growth is -7.4%, slowing by 4.1 pp/year over the last 6Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 19 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.9%, 10.3 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 54 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +5.3% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 17.6% − 4.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Captures the dress-and-jewelry side of the market — a meaningfully different demand segment from sports watches.
1.5kindex
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 2.3 pp/year over the last 6Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +10.1%, 10.0 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 6.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +5.6% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.2% − 2.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
The secondary watch market has quietly put in a cyclical low and is now in a broad-based recovery — it is not, as the mainstream narrative still suggests, a 'dead market that only Rolex survives.' The broad Luxury Watch Index is +2.9% YoY (10.4 pp above its own slowing trend of -7.6%), Rolex is +8.9%, the Submariner 124060 is +10.7%, Patek Philippe is +2.9%, and Cartier is +10.1%.
Watches
Is the watch market moving broadly, or only in a few famous corners? Broad market index, brand-level signals, and macro context for the secondary luxury watch market.
Updated -42 days ago.
Market Baseline
Broadest secondary-market index — answers whether the watch market is rising, flat, or falling.
1.4kindex
Trend YoY growth is -7.6%, slowing by 4.2 pp/year over the last 6Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 18 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.9%, 10.4 pp above trend, a 1.00σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 71 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +5.3% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 18.0% − 4.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Core Market
Clearest proxy for mainstream high-end demand — Rolex has the deepest liquidity in the secondary market.
29.6kindex
Trend YoY growth is -2.6%, slowing by 2.9 pp/year over the last 8Y. Latest: +8.9%, 11.5 pp above trend, a 0.75σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +7.6% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 20.7% − 2.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
One iconic reference that grounds the abstract indexes in a specific object people recognize.
$12.5k
Trend YoY growth is +10.7%, slowing by 7.3 pp/year over the last 10Y.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.7% − 7.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Contrasting Segment
Tracks the collectible top end of the market — often diverges from the Rolex-dominated mainstream core.
1.4kindex
Trend YoY growth is -7.4%, slowing by 4.1 pp/year over the last 6Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 19 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.9%, 10.3 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 54 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +5.3% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 17.6% − 4.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Captures the dress-and-jewelry side of the market — a meaningfully different demand segment from sports watches.
1.5kindex
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 2.3 pp/year over the last 6Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +10.1%, 10.0 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 6.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +5.6% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.2% − 2.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend