Roman Empire
Imperial scale, urban system, production and exchange, and political stability across a thousand years of Roman history.
Updated 1600.
Imperial Scale
Cleanest direct measure of Rome's geopolitical expansion, peak, fragmentation, and eastern survival.
10.0kkm²
Trend YoY growth is -55.7%, slowing by 8 bps/year over the last 1336Y. Latest: -96.7%, 40.9 pp below trend, a 0.54σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 57.2% − 8 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether Rome was expanding into dense, valuable populations or merely larger land area.
400.0kpeople
Trend YoY growth is -40.4%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 1303Y. Latest: -90.0%, 49.6 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.4% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Best single chart for the lived arc of Rome itself: village, metropolis, collapse, and post-ancient recovery.
100.0kpeople
Trend YoY growth is +43.5%, accelerating by 6 bps/year over the last 1500Y. Latest: +81.8%, 38.3 pp above trend, a 1.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −39.8% + 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Urban System
Rome's rise was not just conquest — it created and coordinated a much denser urban network than earlier Mediterranean powers.
120.0cities
Trend YoY growth is -36.7%, slowing by 11 bps/year over the last 550Y. Latest: -20.0%, 16.7 pp above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 22.2% − 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Better measure of Roman development than raw city count because it captures concentration, not just settlement presence.
800.0kpeople
Trend YoY growth is -42.7%, slowing by 11 bps/year over the last 550Y. Latest: -20.0%, 22.7 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 19.7% − 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Production & Exchange
Classic proxy for trade intensity, shipping volume, and the scale of Mediterranean exchange under Rome.
5.00wrecks
Trend YoY growth is -34.6%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 650Y. Latest: -37.5%, 2.9 pp below trend, a 0.32σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −16.1% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Hoard closures often spike during insecurity — one of the best counter-cyclical stress indicators in the Roman world.
30.00hoards
Trend YoY growth is -12.9%, slowing by 19 bps/year over the last 400Y. Latest: -33.3%, 20.5 pp below trend, a 0.42σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 62.5% − 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Political Stability
Nothing makes third-century instability more legible than the sheer rate at which rulers turned over.
2.00accessions
Trend YoY growth is +108.6%, accelerating by 22 bps/year over the last 340Y. Latest: -60.0%, 168.6 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 33.8% + 22 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Rome's collapse was not primarily a story of territorial loss but of urban-system death: the city network and its population disintegrated far faster and more completely than the polity's formal borders, and the archaeological trade proxies confirm that the economic connective tissue was already hollowed out centuries before the political endpoint in 1453.
Roman Empire
Imperial scale, urban system, production and exchange, and political stability across a thousand years of Roman history.
Updated 1600.
Imperial Scale
Cleanest direct measure of Rome's geopolitical expansion, peak, fragmentation, and eastern survival.
10.0kkm²
Trend YoY growth is -55.7%, slowing by 8 bps/year over the last 1336Y. Latest: -96.7%, 40.9 pp below trend, a 0.54σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 57.2% − 8 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether Rome was expanding into dense, valuable populations or merely larger land area.
400.0kpeople
Trend YoY growth is -40.4%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 1303Y. Latest: -90.0%, 49.6 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.4% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Best single chart for the lived arc of Rome itself: village, metropolis, collapse, and post-ancient recovery.
100.0kpeople
Trend YoY growth is +43.5%, accelerating by 6 bps/year over the last 1500Y. Latest: +81.8%, 38.3 pp above trend, a 1.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −39.8% + 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Urban System
Rome's rise was not just conquest — it created and coordinated a much denser urban network than earlier Mediterranean powers.
120.0cities
Trend YoY growth is -36.7%, slowing by 11 bps/year over the last 550Y. Latest: -20.0%, 16.7 pp above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 22.2% − 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Better measure of Roman development than raw city count because it captures concentration, not just settlement presence.
800.0kpeople
Trend YoY growth is -42.7%, slowing by 11 bps/year over the last 550Y. Latest: -20.0%, 22.7 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 19.7% − 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Production & Exchange
Classic proxy for trade intensity, shipping volume, and the scale of Mediterranean exchange under Rome.
5.00wrecks
Trend YoY growth is -34.6%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 650Y. Latest: -37.5%, 2.9 pp below trend, a 0.32σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = −16.1% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Hoard closures often spike during insecurity — one of the best counter-cyclical stress indicators in the Roman world.
30.00hoards
Trend YoY growth is -12.9%, slowing by 19 bps/year over the last 400Y. Latest: -33.3%, 20.5 pp below trend, a 0.42σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 62.5% − 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Political Stability
Nothing makes third-century instability more legible than the sheer rate at which rulers turned over.
2.00accessions
Trend YoY growth is +108.6%, accelerating by 22 bps/year over the last 340Y. Latest: -60.0%, 168.6 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 33.8% + 22 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend