Coin Hoard Closures
Hoard closures often spike during insecurity — one of the best counter-cyclical stress indicators in the Roman world.
30.00hoards
Trend YoY growth is -12.9%, slowing by 19 bps/year over the last 400Y. Latest: -33.3%, 20.5 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +0.0% by Jan '51 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 62.5% − 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend