QXO fundamentals
Tracking the macro drivers behind roofing distribution: residential turnover and affordability, repair and replacement demand, and the new construction pipeline
Updated Sep 10.
Residential Turnover
Best simple proxy for housing turnover — more turnover usually leads to more repair, renovation, and reroof activity.
4.1kK units
Trend YoY growth is -6.6%, slowing by 99 bps/year over the last 10Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.4%, 5.1 pp above trend, a 0.47σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.4% − 99 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inventory is a leading indicator for transaction recovery — more supply usually supports future turnover.
3.80Months
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 10Y. Latest: +0.2%, 30 bps below trend, a 0.62σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.6% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Affordability
Main affordability variable affecting home sales and housing turnover.
6.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.4%, 0 bps above trend, a 0.01σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Higher home equity usually supports homeowner repair and upgrade spending.
336.7Index
Trend YoY growth is +5.3%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.5%, 3.8 pp below trend, a 0.73σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.3% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Repair & Replacement Demand
Monthly count of hail, thunderstorm wind, high wind, and tornado events from NOAA — a major direct driver of reroof demand.
1.4kEvents
Trend YoY growth is 1.2x, accelerating by 16 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: 1.3x, 11.6 pp above trend, a 0.19σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 104.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Dec '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 17.8% + 16 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Helps separate pricing and mix changes from true unit-volume changes and informs margin context.
382.2PPI
Trend YoY growth is +4.0%, slowing by 12 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.9%, 7 bps below trend, a 0.01σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +4.5% by Oct '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 6.9% − 12 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
New Construction Pipeline
Best broad leading indicator for new residential construction demand.
894.0K units
Trend YoY growth is +4.3%, accelerating by 27 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 28 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 3.1 pp below trend, a 0.22σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.6% + 27 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Captures commercial construction demand relevant to commercial roofing and related products.
$755.2B
Trend YoY growth is +8.9%, accelerating by 31 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 31 consecutive periods. Latest: -3.3%, 12.2 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to -2.8% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% + 31 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
QXO's core demand driver — residential housing turnover — remains locked in a structural freeze, and the data increasingly suggests that the hoped-for normalization is not coming anytime soon.
QXO fundamentals
Tracking the macro drivers behind roofing distribution: residential turnover and affordability, repair and replacement demand, and the new construction pipeline
Updated Sep 10.
Residential Turnover
Best simple proxy for housing turnover — more turnover usually leads to more repair, renovation, and reroof activity.
4.1kK units
Trend YoY growth is -6.6%, slowing by 99 bps/year over the last 10Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.4%, 5.1 pp above trend, a 0.47σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.4% − 99 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inventory is a leading indicator for transaction recovery — more supply usually supports future turnover.
3.80Months
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 10Y. Latest: +0.2%, 30 bps below trend, a 0.62σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −0.6% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Affordability
Main affordability variable affecting home sales and housing turnover.
6.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.4%, 0 bps above trend, a 0.01σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Higher home equity usually supports homeowner repair and upgrade spending.
336.7Index
Trend YoY growth is +5.3%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.5%, 3.8 pp below trend, a 0.73σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.3% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Repair & Replacement Demand
Monthly count of hail, thunderstorm wind, high wind, and tornado events from NOAA — a major direct driver of reroof demand.
1.4kEvents
Trend YoY growth is 1.2x, accelerating by 16 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: 1.3x, 11.6 pp above trend, a 0.19σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 104.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Dec '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 17.8% + 16 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Helps separate pricing and mix changes from true unit-volume changes and informs margin context.
382.2PPI
Trend YoY growth is +4.0%, slowing by 12 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.9%, 7 bps below trend, a 0.01σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +4.5% by Oct '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 6.9% − 12 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
New Construction Pipeline
Best broad leading indicator for new residential construction demand.
894.0K units
Trend YoY growth is +4.3%, accelerating by 27 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 28 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 3.1 pp below trend, a 0.22σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.6% + 27 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Captures commercial construction demand relevant to commercial roofing and related products.
$755.2B
Trend YoY growth is +8.9%, accelerating by 31 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 31 consecutive periods. Latest: -3.3%, 12.2 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to -2.8% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% + 31 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend