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QXO fundamentals

Tracking the macro drivers behind roofing distribution: residential turnover and affordability, repair and replacement demand, and the new construction pipeline Updated just now.

Residential Turnover

Existing Home Sales

Best simple proxy for housing turnover — more turnover usually leads to more repair, renovation, and reroof activity.

▲ +2.0% YoY

4.1kK units

Trend YoY growth is +2.0%, accelerating by 15 bps/month over the last 2Y. Latest: -1.4%, 3.4 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25.

Level

YoY %

y = −1.3% + 15 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Existing Home Months' Supply

Inventory is a leading indicator for transaction recovery — more supply usually supports future turnover.

▲ +0.3% YoY

3.8Months

Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, slowing by 3 bps/month over the last 2Y. Latest: +0.2%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.2σ deviation.

Level

Change (pp)

y = 0.8% − 3 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Affordability

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Main affordability variable affecting home sales and housing turnover.

▼ -0.5% YoY

6.4%

Trend YoY growth is -0.5%, slowing by 2.0 pp/month over the last 2Y. Latest: -0.3%, 24 bps above trend, a 0.5σ deviation.

Level

YoY Change (bps)

y = 0.0% − 2 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

National Home Price Index (Case-Shiller)

Higher home equity usually supports homeowner repair and upgrade spending.

▲ +0.6% YoY

326.6Index

Trend YoY growth is +0.6%, slowing by 24 bps/month over the last 2Y. Latest: +0.9%, 29 bps above trend, a 0.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 64 bps due to an tough comparison base from Jan '25.

Level

YoY %

y = 5.5% − 24 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Repair & Replacement Demand

Severe Hail & Wind Storm Events

Monthly count of hail, thunderstorm wind, high wind, and tornado events from NOAA — a major direct driver of reroof demand.

▲ +3.3% YoY

1.4kEvents

Trend YoY growth is +3.3%, slowing by 2.2 pp/month over the last 2Y. Latest: +33.4%, 30.1 pp above trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 95.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from Dec '24.

Level

YoY %

y = 46.4% − 2.2 pp/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Asphalt Roofing Product Prices

Helps separate pricing and mix changes from true unit-volume changes and informs margin context.

▲ +0.7% YoY

360.6PPI

Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 7 bps/month over the last 2Y. Latest: +1.3%, 57 bps above trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25.

Level

YoY %

y = 2.3% − 7 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

New Construction Pipeline

Single-Family Building Permits

Best broad leading indicator for new residential construction demand.

▼ -11.3% YoY

876.0K units

Trend YoY growth is -11.3%, slowing by 62 bps/month over the last 2Y. Latest: -11.3%, 4 bps below trend, a 0.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25.

Level

YoY %

y = 1.3% − 62 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Private Nonresidential Construction Spending

Captures commercial construction demand relevant to commercial roofing and related products.

▼ -4.4% YoY

728.2k$M

Trend YoY growth is -4.4%, slowing by 22 bps/month over the last 2Y. Latest: -3.0%, 1.3 pp above trend, a 0.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25.

Level

YoY %

y = 0.1% − 22 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend