Globalization fragmenting into rival operating systems
The post-Cold War assumption was that trade integration and technological diffusion would produce convergence under a stable ruleset. The actual path looks roug Most recent data from today.
Trade
Monthly goods trade deficit — widening deficits signal import dependence; narrowing may reflect reshoring or trade barriers.
$-57.3B
Trend YoY growth is -4.2%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 12 consecutive periods. Latest: +52.1%, 56.3 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 76.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +18.7% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −6.9% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total quarterly export volume — tracks whether the U.S. is gaining or losing share in a fragmenting trade system.
$3.4T
Trend YoY growth is +4.8%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +3.1%, 1.7 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Proxy for China's tech sector accessibility — decoupling shows up as valuation divergence from U.S. tech.
$30.2
Trend YoY growth is -1.2%, slowing by 2.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +6.0%, 7.2 pp above trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 21.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 17.7% − 2.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Strategic Buildup
Market pricing of defense spending — rising valuations reflect expectations of sustained military buildup across blocs.
$228.4
Trend YoY growth is +22.8%, accelerating by 1.5 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 236 consecutive periods. Latest: +53.6%, 30.7 pp above trend, a 3.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.4% + 1.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
No data
Broad EM equity basket — underperformance vs. U.S. signals capital retreating from fragmentation-exposed economies.
$62.4
Trend YoY growth is +9.1%, accelerating by 18 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 228 consecutive periods. Latest: +52.5%, 43.5 pp above trend, a 4.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.4% + 18 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Competition
Domestic industrial companies — outperformance signals reshoring and industrial policy tailwinds.
$170.2
Trend YoY growth is +17.7%, accelerating by 80 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 82 consecutive periods. Latest: +37.7%, 19.9 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% + 80 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
New orders for long-lived manufactured goods — leading indicator of industrial investment and reshoring activity.
$315.9B
Trend YoY growth is +5.3%, accelerating by 21 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +7.5%, 2.1 pp above trend, a 0.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -8.2% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.0% + 21 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Dollar System
The world's reserve currency — sustained weakness may signal erosion of dollar hegemony in a multipolar order.
98.29Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 267 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.1%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Foreign central bank appetite for Treasuries — declining share suggests dedollarization or reserve diversification.
$9.2T
Trend YoY growth is +3.0%, slowing by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.5%, 2.5 pp above trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 13.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.9% − 53 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
EAFE equity performance — tracks whether capital is concentrating in the U.S. or redistributing across blocs.
$102.8
Trend YoY growth is +13.3%, accelerating by 84 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 139 consecutive periods. Latest: +31.3%, 18.0 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.7% + 84 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
Globalization fragmenting into rival operating systems
The post-Cold War assumption was that trade integration and technological diffusion would produce convergence under a stable ruleset. The actual path looks roug Most recent data from today.
Trade
Monthly goods trade deficit — widening deficits signal import dependence; narrowing may reflect reshoring or trade barriers.
$-57.3B
Trend YoY growth is -4.2%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 12 consecutive periods. Latest: +52.1%, 56.3 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 76.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +18.7% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −6.9% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total quarterly export volume — tracks whether the U.S. is gaining or losing share in a fragmenting trade system.
$3.4T
Trend YoY growth is +4.8%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +3.1%, 1.7 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Proxy for China's tech sector accessibility — decoupling shows up as valuation divergence from U.S. tech.
$30.2
Trend YoY growth is -1.2%, slowing by 2.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +6.0%, 7.2 pp above trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 21.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 17.7% − 2.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Strategic Buildup
Market pricing of defense spending — rising valuations reflect expectations of sustained military buildup across blocs.
$228.4
Trend YoY growth is +22.8%, accelerating by 1.5 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 236 consecutive periods. Latest: +53.6%, 30.7 pp above trend, a 3.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.4% + 1.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
No data
Broad EM equity basket — underperformance vs. U.S. signals capital retreating from fragmentation-exposed economies.
$62.4
Trend YoY growth is +9.1%, accelerating by 18 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 228 consecutive periods. Latest: +52.5%, 43.5 pp above trend, a 4.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.4% + 18 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Competition
Domestic industrial companies — outperformance signals reshoring and industrial policy tailwinds.
$170.2
Trend YoY growth is +17.7%, accelerating by 80 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 82 consecutive periods. Latest: +37.7%, 19.9 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% + 80 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
New orders for long-lived manufactured goods — leading indicator of industrial investment and reshoring activity.
$315.9B
Trend YoY growth is +5.3%, accelerating by 21 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +7.5%, 2.1 pp above trend, a 0.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -8.2% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.0% + 21 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Dollar System
The world's reserve currency — sustained weakness may signal erosion of dollar hegemony in a multipolar order.
98.29Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 267 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.1%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Foreign central bank appetite for Treasuries — declining share suggests dedollarization or reserve diversification.
$9.2T
Trend YoY growth is +3.0%, slowing by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.5%, 2.5 pp above trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 13.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.9% − 53 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
EAFE equity performance — tracks whether capital is concentrating in the U.S. or redistributing across blocs.
$102.8
Trend YoY growth is +13.3%, accelerating by 84 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 139 consecutive periods. Latest: +31.3%, 18.0 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.7% + 84 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend