Globalization fragmenting into rival operating systems
The post-Cold War assumption was that trade integration and technological diffusion would produce convergence under a stable ruleset. The actual path looks roug
Updated today.
Trade
No data
Proxy for China's tech sector accessibility — decoupling shows up as valuation divergence from U.S. tech.
$26.5
Trend YoY growth is -1.7%, slowing by 2.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: -17.3%, 15.7 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 23.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.6% − 2.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Strategic Buildup
Market pricing of defense spending — rising valuations reflect expectations of sustained military buildup across blocs.
$233.8
Trend YoY growth is +24.5%, accelerating by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 274 consecutive periods. Latest: +30.4%, 5.9 pp above trend, a 0.51σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 12.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.1% + 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
No data
Broad EM equity basket — underperformance vs. U.S. signals capital retreating from fragmentation-exposed economies.
$67.9
Trend YoY growth is +12.4%, accelerating by 82 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 232 consecutive periods. Latest: +47.6%, 35.2 pp above trend, a 4.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.0% + 82 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Competition
Domestic industrial companies — outperformance signals reshoring and industrial policy tailwinds.
$176.2
Trend YoY growth is +18.9%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 97 consecutive periods. Latest: +25.2%, 6.3 pp above trend, a 0.95σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.6% + 1.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
No data
Dollar System
The world's reserve currency — sustained weakness may signal erosion of dollar hegemony in a multipolar order.
99.54Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.47σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.2% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
EAFE equity performance — tracks whether capital is concentrating in the U.S. or redistributing across blocs.
$105.0
Trend YoY growth is +14.4%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 179 consecutive periods. Latest: +21.9%, 7.5 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.0% + 1.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Fragmentation is now more visible in strategic-asset prices than in the underlying trade flows, and that inversion is the signal — capital markets are pricing the new bloc architecture faster than goods markets are re-routing through it.
Globalization fragmenting into rival operating systems
The post-Cold War assumption was that trade integration and technological diffusion would produce convergence under a stable ruleset. The actual path looks roug
Updated today.
Trade
No data
Proxy for China's tech sector accessibility — decoupling shows up as valuation divergence from U.S. tech.
$26.5
Trend YoY growth is -1.7%, slowing by 2.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: -17.3%, 15.7 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 23.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.6% − 2.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Strategic Buildup
Market pricing of defense spending — rising valuations reflect expectations of sustained military buildup across blocs.
$233.8
Trend YoY growth is +24.5%, accelerating by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 274 consecutive periods. Latest: +30.4%, 5.9 pp above trend, a 0.51σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 12.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.1% + 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
No data
Broad EM equity basket — underperformance vs. U.S. signals capital retreating from fragmentation-exposed economies.
$67.9
Trend YoY growth is +12.4%, accelerating by 82 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 232 consecutive periods. Latest: +47.6%, 35.2 pp above trend, a 4.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.0% + 82 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial Competition
Domestic industrial companies — outperformance signals reshoring and industrial policy tailwinds.
$176.2
Trend YoY growth is +18.9%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 97 consecutive periods. Latest: +25.2%, 6.3 pp above trend, a 0.95σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.6% + 1.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
No data
Dollar System
The world's reserve currency — sustained weakness may signal erosion of dollar hegemony in a multipolar order.
99.54Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.47σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.2% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
EAFE equity performance — tracks whether capital is concentrating in the U.S. or redistributing across blocs.
$105.0
Trend YoY growth is +14.4%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 179 consecutive periods. Latest: +21.9%, 7.5 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.0% + 1.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend