Hard constraints returning as economic bottlenecks
Tracking whether physical scarcity — energy, materials, grid equipment, and construction capacity — is binding on growth. The late 20th century trained people t
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Broad industrial output — the primary driver of electricity, materials, and infrastructure demand.
99.44Index
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 19 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.4%, 1.5 pp above trend, a 0.56σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +2.5% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Monthly pace of all U.S. construction — the dollar volume of physical buildout.
$2.2T
Trend YoY growth is +6.9%, accelerating by 21 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 27 consecutive periods. Latest: -2.7%, 9.6 pp below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to -1.4% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.6% + 21 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market pricing of companies that build roads, bridges, power grids, and data centers.
$55.1
Trend YoY growth is +27.6%, accelerating by 2.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 55 consecutive periods. Latest: +16.6%, 11.0 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 8.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.1% + 2.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Critical Materials
Copper is the metal of electrification — every EV, transformer, and data center needs it.
$71.7
Trend YoY growth is +49.5%, accelerating by 5.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 27 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.1%, 22.4 pp below trend, a 0.75σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.6% + 5.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Battery storage is the binding constraint on intermittent renewables and grid flexibility.
$60.2
Trend YoY growth is +22.6%, accelerating by 20 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +2.3%, 20.3 pp below trend, a 0.60σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 18.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 20.8% + 20 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad basket of aluminum, copper, and zinc — tracks aggregate materials scarcity.
$24.6
Trend YoY growth is +16.6%, accelerating by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +17.1%, 48 bps above trend, a 0.07σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.2% + 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Grid & Equipment
Largest electrical equipment manufacturer — rising price signals power distribution demand outpacing supply.
$394.4
Trend YoY growth is +34.6%, accelerating by 2.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 131 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.6%, 29.1 pp below trend, a 2.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.3% + 2.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. power infrastructure contractor — order book reflects grid buildout pipeline.
$651.2
Trend YoY growth is +70.6%, accelerating by 6.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 20 consecutive periods. Latest: +48.6%, 22.1 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 16.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.0% + 6.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Steel is the backbone of all physical infrastructure — tracks domestic production capacity.
119.0Index
Trend YoY growth is +1.9%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 15 consecutive periods. Latest: +8.4%, 6.5 pp above trend, a 0.93σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.8% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capacity
How much of existing factory capacity is in use — above 80% signals tightness and investment pressure.
75.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.2%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.03σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +1.3% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Commercial and industrial building pace — the supply response to physical bottlenecks.
$1.3T
Trend YoY growth is +6.9%, accelerating by 16 bps/year over the last 24Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.8%, 5.1 pp below trend, a 0.59σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +4.0% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.0% + 16 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Capital is already pricing the physical-constraints story more aggressively than the output data is yet confirming, and the gap between the two is the defining feature of the regime shift.
Hard constraints returning as economic bottlenecks
Tracking whether physical scarcity — energy, materials, grid equipment, and construction capacity — is binding on growth. The late 20th century trained people t
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Broad industrial output — the primary driver of electricity, materials, and infrastructure demand.
99.44Index
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 19 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.4%, 1.5 pp above trend, a 0.56σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +2.5% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Monthly pace of all U.S. construction — the dollar volume of physical buildout.
$2.2T
Trend YoY growth is +6.9%, accelerating by 21 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 27 consecutive periods. Latest: -2.7%, 9.6 pp below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to -1.4% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.6% + 21 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market pricing of companies that build roads, bridges, power grids, and data centers.
$55.1
Trend YoY growth is +27.6%, accelerating by 2.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 55 consecutive periods. Latest: +16.6%, 11.0 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 8.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.1% + 2.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Critical Materials
Copper is the metal of electrification — every EV, transformer, and data center needs it.
$71.7
Trend YoY growth is +49.5%, accelerating by 5.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 27 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.1%, 22.4 pp below trend, a 0.75σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.6% + 5.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Battery storage is the binding constraint on intermittent renewables and grid flexibility.
$60.2
Trend YoY growth is +22.6%, accelerating by 20 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +2.3%, 20.3 pp below trend, a 0.60σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 18.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 20.8% + 20 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad basket of aluminum, copper, and zinc — tracks aggregate materials scarcity.
$24.6
Trend YoY growth is +16.6%, accelerating by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +17.1%, 48 bps above trend, a 0.07σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.2% + 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Grid & Equipment
Largest electrical equipment manufacturer — rising price signals power distribution demand outpacing supply.
$394.4
Trend YoY growth is +34.6%, accelerating by 2.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 131 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.6%, 29.1 pp below trend, a 2.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.3% + 2.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. power infrastructure contractor — order book reflects grid buildout pipeline.
$651.2
Trend YoY growth is +70.6%, accelerating by 6.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 20 consecutive periods. Latest: +48.6%, 22.1 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 16.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Nov '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.0% + 6.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Steel is the backbone of all physical infrastructure — tracks domestic production capacity.
119.0Index
Trend YoY growth is +1.9%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 15 consecutive periods. Latest: +8.4%, 6.5 pp above trend, a 0.93σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.8% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capacity
How much of existing factory capacity is in use — above 80% signals tightness and investment pressure.
75.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.2%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.03σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +1.3% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Commercial and industrial building pace — the supply response to physical bottlenecks.
$1.3T
Trend YoY growth is +6.9%, accelerating by 16 bps/year over the last 24Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.8%, 5.1 pp below trend, a 0.59σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +4.0% by Dec '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.0% + 16 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend