Hard constraints returning as economic bottlenecks
Tracking whether physical scarcity — energy, materials, grid equipment, and construction capacity — is binding on growth. The late 20th century trained people t
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Broad industrial output — the primary driver of electricity, materials, and infrastructure demand.
98.70Index
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 19 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.2 pp above trend, a 0.46σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 73 bps due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Monthly pace of all U.S. construction — the dollar volume of physical buildout.
$2.2T
Trend YoY growth is +7.2%, accelerating by 23 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: -3.2%, 10.4 pp below trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.5% + 23 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market pricing of companies that build roads, bridges, power grids, and data centers.
$58.6
Trend YoY growth is +28.5%, accelerating by 2.4 pp/year over the last 8Y. Latest: +28.4%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.01σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.5% + 2.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Critical Materials
Copper is the metal of electrification — every EV, transformer, and data center needs it.
$85.7
Trend YoY growth is +44.6%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 181 consecutive periods. Latest: +86.7%, 42.0 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Battery storage is the binding constraint on intermittent renewables and grid flexibility.
$75.3
Trend YoY growth is +19.9%, slowing by 49 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 244 consecutive periods. Latest: +64.7%, 44.8 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 24.3% − 49 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad basket of aluminum, copper, and zinc — tracks aggregate materials scarcity.
$25.4
Trend YoY growth is +13.5%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 170 consecutive periods. Latest: +33.8%, 20.2 pp above trend, a 3.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.6% + 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Grid & Equipment
Largest electrical equipment manufacturer — rising price signals power distribution demand outpacing supply.
$452.9
Trend YoY growth is +36.1%, accelerating by 2.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 71 consecutive periods. Latest: +30.4%, 5.7 pp below trend, a 0.46σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.1% + 2.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. power infrastructure contractor — order book reflects grid buildout pipeline.
$685.8
Trend YoY growth is +69.4%, accelerating by 6.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +80.2%, 10.8 pp above trend, a 0.45σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 22.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.2% + 6.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Steel is the backbone of all physical infrastructure — tracks domestic production capacity.
116.8Index
Trend YoY growth is +1.8%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 12 consecutive periods. Latest: +8.6%, 6.8 pp above trend, a 0.95σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capacity
How much of existing factory capacity is in use — above 80% signals tightness and investment pressure.
75.6%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 3.4 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 13 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.0%, 29 bps below trend, a 0.15σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52 bps due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Commercial and industrial building pace — the supply response to physical bottlenecks.
$1.3T
Trend YoY growth is +7.1%, accelerating by 18 bps/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 23 consecutive periods. Latest: -2.1%, 9.2 pp below trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.9% + 18 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Capital is already pricing the physical-constraints story more aggressively than the output data is yet confirming, and the gap between the two is the defining feature of the regime shift.
Hard constraints returning as economic bottlenecks
Tracking whether physical scarcity — energy, materials, grid equipment, and construction capacity — is binding on growth. The late 20th century trained people t
Updated yesterday.
Demand
Broad industrial output — the primary driver of electricity, materials, and infrastructure demand.
98.70Index
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 19 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.2 pp above trend, a 0.46σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 73 bps due to an tough comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Monthly pace of all U.S. construction — the dollar volume of physical buildout.
$2.2T
Trend YoY growth is +7.2%, accelerating by 23 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: -3.2%, 10.4 pp below trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.5% + 23 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market pricing of companies that build roads, bridges, power grids, and data centers.
$58.6
Trend YoY growth is +28.5%, accelerating by 2.4 pp/year over the last 8Y. Latest: +28.4%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.01σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.5% + 2.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Critical Materials
Copper is the metal of electrification — every EV, transformer, and data center needs it.
$85.7
Trend YoY growth is +44.6%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 181 consecutive periods. Latest: +86.7%, 42.0 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Battery storage is the binding constraint on intermittent renewables and grid flexibility.
$75.3
Trend YoY growth is +19.9%, slowing by 49 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 244 consecutive periods. Latest: +64.7%, 44.8 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 24.3% − 49 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad basket of aluminum, copper, and zinc — tracks aggregate materials scarcity.
$25.4
Trend YoY growth is +13.5%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 170 consecutive periods. Latest: +33.8%, 20.2 pp above trend, a 3.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.6% + 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Grid & Equipment
Largest electrical equipment manufacturer — rising price signals power distribution demand outpacing supply.
$452.9
Trend YoY growth is +36.1%, accelerating by 2.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 71 consecutive periods. Latest: +30.4%, 5.7 pp below trend, a 0.46σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.1% + 2.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Largest U.S. power infrastructure contractor — order book reflects grid buildout pipeline.
$685.8
Trend YoY growth is +69.4%, accelerating by 6.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +80.2%, 10.8 pp above trend, a 0.45σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 22.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.2% + 6.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Steel is the backbone of all physical infrastructure — tracks domestic production capacity.
116.8Index
Trend YoY growth is +1.8%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 12 consecutive periods. Latest: +8.6%, 6.8 pp above trend, a 0.95σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.9% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Capacity
How much of existing factory capacity is in use — above 80% signals tightness and investment pressure.
75.6%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 3.4 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 13 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.0%, 29 bps below trend, a 0.15σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52 bps due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Commercial and industrial building pace — the supply response to physical bottlenecks.
$1.3T
Trend YoY growth is +7.1%, accelerating by 18 bps/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 23 consecutive periods. Latest: -2.1%, 9.2 pp below trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.9% + 18 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend