Manufacturing Production Index
Broad industrial output — the primary driver of electricity, materials, and infrastructure demand.
Key Insight
Manufacturing output has been essentially flat for three years near an index level of 100, meaning the much-discussed reshoring and industrial-policy boom has produced a surge in factory construction spending without a corresponding rise in actual goods produced.
98.67Index
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 17 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.4%, 1.5 pp above trend, a 0.54σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 0.9 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr 1. At current levels, YoY would fall to +0.6% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)
Projected value (Index)
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | 98.05 | 97.62 | 98.20 | 98.93 | 98.83 | 100.3 | 101.1 | 101.3 | 101.5 | 102.2 | 103.0 | 103.3 | 103.5 | 103.0 | 103.2 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 105.0 | 105.3 | 106.3 | 109.6 | 176% |
| Oct '25 | 97.21 | 98.15 | 98.87 | 98.77 | 100.3 | 101.0 | 101.3 | 101.5 | 102.1 | 102.9 | 103.2 | 103.5 | 102.9 | 103.1 | 103.3 | 104.3 | 105.0 | 105.3 | 106.2 | 109.5 | 192% | |
| Nov '25 | 97.13 | 98.56 | 98.43 | 99.92 | 100.6 | 100.8 | 101.0 | 101.6 | 102.4 | 102.7 | 102.9 | 102.3 | 102.4 | 102.6 | 103.5 | 104.2 | 104.5 | 105.4 | 108.1 | 184% | ||
| Dec '25 | 97.06 | 97.86 | 99.27 | 99.89 | 100.0 | 100.1 | 100.7 | 101.3 | 101.6 | 101.7 | 101.0 | 101.1 | 101.3 | 102.1 | 102.7 | 102.9 | 103.7 | 105.4 | 126% | |||
| Jan '26 | 97.66 | 99.06 | 99.64 | 99.74 | 99.81 | 100.3 | 101.0 | 101.1 | 101.3 | 100.5 | 100.6 | 100.7 | 101.5 | 102.0 | 102.2 | 103.0 | 104.3 | 137% | ||||
| Feb '26 | 98.02 | 99.31 | 99.37 | 99.40 | 99.85 | 100.5 | 100.6 | 100.7 | 99.95 | 99.98 | 100.0 | 100.8 | 101.3 | 101.4 | 102.2 | 103.0 | 119% | |||||
| Mar '26 | 98.07 | 98.91 | 98.89 | 99.29 | 99.85 | 99.92 | 99.95 | 99.16 | 99.13 | 99.12 | 99.79 | 100.2 | 100.3 | 101.0 | 101.3 | 16% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | 98.67 | 98.72 | 99.09 | 99.62 | 99.67 | 99.67 | 98.86 | 98.81 | 98.77 | 99.41 | 99.82 | 99.90 | 100.5 | 100.6 | ||||||||
| May '26 | 98.72 | 99.09 | 99.62 | 99.67 | 99.67 | 98.86 | 98.81 | 98.77 | 99.41 | 99.82 | 99.90 | 100.5 | 100.6 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | +2.0% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.4% | +4.7% | +5.0% | +5.3% | +5.6% | +5.9% | +6.2% | +6.5% | +6.8% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +7.7% | +8.0% | 176% |
| Oct '25 | +1.9% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +3.7% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +4.6% | +4.9% | +5.3% | +5.6% | +5.9% | +6.2% | +6.5% | +6.8% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +7.7% | +8.0% | 192% | |
| Nov '25 | +1.5% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.6% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.4% | +4.7% | +4.9% | +5.2% | +5.5% | +5.7% | +6.0% | +6.3% | +6.5% | +6.8% | +7.1% | 184% | ||
| Dec '25 | +0.9% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +4.1% | +4.3% | +4.5% | +4.7% | +4.9% | +5.1% | +5.3% | 126% | |||
| Jan '26 | +2.0% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.4% | +3.6% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +4.1% | +4.2% | +4.4% | +4.5% | 137% | ||||
| Feb '26 | +1.1% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.6% | +2.7% | +2.8% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +3.4% | +3.5% | +3.6% | 119% | |||||
| Mar '26 | +0.7% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.4% | 16% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +1.9% | ||||||||
| May '26 | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +1.9% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.