Working-Age Population
Ratio of China's working-age population (15–64) to US working-age population. 1.0 = parity.
4.5×
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/month over the last 32Y. Latest: -0.1%, 3 bps below trend, a 0.9σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '12 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 100% |
| '13 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 123% | |
| '14 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 120% | ||
| '15 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 128% | |||
| '16 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 87% | ||||
| '17 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 100% | |||||
| '18 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 82% | ||||||
| '19 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 100% | |||||||
| '20 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 100% | ||||||||
| '21 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 100% | |||||||||
| '22 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 43% | ||||||||||
| '23 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | ||||||||||||
| '24 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '12 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 100% |
| '13 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 123% | |
| '14 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 120% | ||
| '15 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 128% | |||
| '16 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 87% | ||||
| '17 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 100% | |||||
| '18 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 82% | ||||||
| '19 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 100% | |||||||
| '20 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 100% | ||||||||
| '21 | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 100% | |||||||||
| '22 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 43% | ||||||||||
| '23 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||||||||||||
| '24 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |