Violent Crime Rate
Violent crimes (murder, rape, robbery, assault) per 100k residents.
182.4per 100k
Trend YoY growth is -32.7%, slowing by 18.4 pp/year over the last 5Y. Latest: -46.2%, 13.5 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 59.4% − 18.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (per 100k)
Projected value (per 100k)
| Forecast made in | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | '37 | '38 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '13 | 159.9 | 162.8 | 162.1 | 104.3 | 101.1 | 170.2 | 142.1 | 164.7 | 172.9 | 200.3 | 324.0 | 289.5 | 265.1 | 221.9 | 264.6 | 310.2 | 358.9 | 410.6 | 465.4 | 523.3 | 584.2 | 648.1 | 715.1 | 785.2 | 858.3 | 934.4 | 158% |
| '14 | 156.1 | 192.6 | 148.7 | 159.7 | 242.7 | 228.7 | 265.3 | 287.6 | 443.6 | 466.7 | 446.3 | 435.9 | 406.8 | 648.2 | 906.7 | 1.2k | 1.5k | 1.8k | 2.1k | 2.5k | 2.8k | 3.2k | 3.6k | 4.0k | 4.4k | 610% | |
| '15 | 95.20 | 33.83 | 9.32 | 57.06 | 7.69 | 8.93 | -4.18 | -175.2 | 104.3 | 48.53 | 2.72 | -61.75 | -324.2 | -604.8 | -903.8 | -1.2k | -1.6k | -1.9k | -2.3k | -2.7k | -3.1k | -3.5k | -4.0k | -4.4k | 708% | ||
| '16 | 89.00 | 48.70 | 105.4 | 65.05 | 75.27 | 71.17 | -15.54 | 197.6 | 150.8 | 114.0 | 58.56 | -74.55 | -216.9 | -368.6 | -529.6 | -699.8 | -879.4 | -1.1k | -1.3k | -1.5k | -1.7k | -1.9k | -2.2k | 347% | |||
| '17 | 155.0 | 193.8 | 176.1 | 208.9 | 227.6 | 319.9 | 399.3 | 375.2 | 361.1 | 328.3 | 487.6 | 660.3 | 846.4 | 1.0k | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.7k | 2.0k | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2.8k | 3.1k | 413% | ||||
| '18 | 123.9 | 138.4 | 165.1 | 177.6 | 213.8 | 337.1 | 306.8 | 286.5 | 247.6 | 320.0 | 399.6 | 486.5 | 580.6 | 681.9 | 790.5 | 906.4 | 1.0k | 1.2k | 1.3k | 1.4k | 1.6k | 191% | |||||
| '19 | 143.4 | 181.6 | 200.4 | 265.9 | 372.6 | 348.7 | 334.8 | 302.2 | 435.6 | 582.6 | 743.2 | 917.4 | 1.1k | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.8k | 2.0k | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2.8k | 353% | ||||||
| '20 | 148.6 | 152.2 | 153.4 | 292.5 | 252.6 | 222.7 | 174.2 | 163.6 | 150.6 | 135.3 | 117.6 | 97.52 | 75.10 | 50.31 | 23.16 | -6.35 | -38.23 | -72.48 | -109.1 | 93% | |||||||
| '22 | 293.6 | 464.7 | 469.2 | 483.7 | 479.5 | 818.5 | 1.2k | 1.6k | 2.1k | 2.6k | 3.1k | 3.7k | 4.4k | 5.0k | 5.8k | 6.5k | 7.3k | 694% | |||||||||
| '23 | 256.1 | 296.9 | 272.0 | 228.4 | 277.0 | 328.1 | 381.9 | 438.3 | 497.2 | 558.7 | 622.9 | 689.6 | 758.9 | 830.7 | 905.2 | 982.3 | 221% | ||||||||||
| '24 | 228.6 | 210.9 | 150.5 | 104.5 | 44.25 | -30.18 | -118.8 | -221.6 | -338.5 | -469.6 | -615.0 | -774.4 | -948.1 | -1.1k | -1.3k | 62% | |||||||||||
| '25 | 182.4 | 49.99 | -138.7 | -383.7 | -685.2 | -1.0k | -1.5k | -1.9k | -2.5k | -3.0k | -3.7k | -4.4k | -5.1k | -5.9k | |||||||||||||
| '26 | 49.99 | -138.7 | -383.7 | -685.2 | -1.0k | -1.5k | -1.9k | -2.5k | -3.0k | -3.7k | -4.4k | -5.1k | -5.9k |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | '37 | '38 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '13 | -2.1% | +3.0% | +6.0% | +9.0% | +12.1% | +15.1% | +18.2% | +21.2% | +24.3% | +27.3% | +30.4% | +33.4% | +36.5% | +39.5% | +42.6% | +45.6% | +48.7% | +51.7% | +54.8% | +57.8% | +60.9% | +63.9% | +67.0% | +70.0% | +73.1% | +76.1% | 158% |
| '14 | -3.8% | +36.5% | +53.5% | +70.7% | +87.7% | +104.8% | +121.9% | +139.0% | +156.0% | +173.1% | +190.2% | +207.3% | +224.4% | +241.4% | +258.5% | +275.6% | +292.7% | +309.8% | +326.8% | +343.9% | +361.0% | +378.1% | +395.1% | +412.3% | +429.3% | 610% | |
| '15 | -60.9% | -61.4% | -79.7% | -97.9% | -116.2% | -134.5% | -152.8% | -171.0% | -189.3% | -207.6% | -225.9% | -244.1% | -262.4% | -280.7% | -299.0% | -317.2% | -335.5% | -353.8% | -372.1% | -390.4% | -408.6% | -426.9% | -445.2% | -463.5% | 708% | ||
| '16 | -6.2% | -40.3% | -49.6% | -58.9% | -68.1% | -77.4% | -86.7% | -96.0% | -105.3% | -114.6% | -123.8% | -133.1% | -142.4% | -151.7% | -161.0% | -170.2% | -179.5% | -188.8% | -198.1% | -207.4% | -216.6% | -226.0% | -235.2% | 347% | |||
| '17 | +66.0% | +38.8% | +52.2% | +65.5% | +79.0% | +92.4% | +105.7% | +119.1% | +132.5% | +145.9% | +159.3% | +172.7% | +186.1% | +199.5% | +212.9% | +226.3% | +239.7% | +253.1% | +266.5% | +279.8% | +293.3% | +306.6% | 413% | ||||
| '18 | -31.1% | +14.5% | +21.7% | +29.0% | +36.2% | +43.5% | +50.7% | +57.9% | +65.2% | +72.4% | +79.6% | +86.9% | +94.1% | +101.3% | +108.6% | +115.8% | +123.1% | +130.3% | +137.5% | +144.8% | +152.0% | 191% | |||||
| '19 | +19.5% | +38.2% | +51.9% | +65.4% | +79.0% | +92.6% | +106.2% | +119.8% | +133.4% | +147.0% | +160.6% | +174.2% | +187.8% | +201.4% | +215.0% | +228.6% | +242.1% | +255.7% | +269.4% | +282.9% | 353% | ||||||
| '20 | +5.2% | +3.6% | +1.2% | -1.1% | -3.5% | -5.9% | -8.2% | -10.6% | -13.0% | -15.3% | -17.7% | -20.1% | -22.4% | -24.8% | -27.2% | -29.5% | -31.9% | -34.2% | -36.6% | 93% | |||||||
| '22 | +145.0% | +171.1% | +213.1% | +255.1% | +297.1% | +339.0% | +381.0% | +423.1% | +465.0% | +507.0% | +549.0% | +591.0% | +633.0% | +674.9% | +716.9% | +759.0% | +800.9% | 694% | |||||||||
| '23 | -37.5% | +40.8% | +43.4% | +46.0% | +48.6% | +51.2% | +53.8% | +56.4% | +58.9% | +61.5% | +64.1% | +66.7% | +69.3% | +71.9% | +74.5% | +77.1% | 221% | ||||||||||
| '24 | -27.5% | -17.7% | -31.9% | -46.1% | -60.2% | -74.4% | -88.6% | -102.8% | -116.9% | -131.1% | -145.3% | -159.5% | -173.7% | -187.9% | -202.0% | 62% | |||||||||||
| '25 | -46.2% | -132.4% | -188.7% | -245.0% | -301.5% | -357.8% | -414.0% | -470.3% | -526.8% | -583.1% | -639.4% | -695.7% | -752.1% | -808.4% | |||||||||||||
| '26 | -132.4% | -188.7% | -245.0% | -301.5% | -357.8% | -414.0% | -470.3% | -526.8% | -583.1% | -639.4% | -695.7% | -752.1% | -808.4% |