Utilities ETF (XLU)
Market's real-time pricing of the utility sector — rises when investors expect higher electricity demand and earnings.
$47.2
Trend YoY growth is +16.4%, accelerating by 17 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 39 consecutive periods. Latest: +28.6%, 12.3 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 6.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr 9.
Level
YoY %
y = 6.1% + 17 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | +31.6% | +32.9% | +34.1% | +35.4% | +36.7% | +38.0% | +39.2% | +40.5% | +41.8% | +43.1% | +44.2% | +45.5% | +46.8% | +48.0% | +49.3% | +50.6% | +51.8% | +53.1% | +54.4% | +55.6% | +56.9% | +58.2% | +59.4% | +60.6% |
| Jun '25 | +27.5% | +27.9% | +28.4% | +28.8% | +29.3% | +29.8% | +30.2% | +30.7% | +31.2% | +31.6% | +32.1% | +32.5% | +33.0% | +33.5% | +33.9% | +34.4% | +34.9% | +35.3% | +35.8% | +36.3% | +36.7% | +37.1% | +37.6% | |
| Jul '25 | +23.7% | +23.3% | +22.9% | +22.5% | +22.2% | +21.8% | +21.4% | +21.0% | +20.7% | +20.3% | +20.0% | +19.6% | +19.2% | +18.8% | +18.5% | +18.1% | +17.7% | +17.3% | +17.0% | +16.6% | +16.2% | +15.9% | ||
| Aug '25 | +19.5% | +18.2% | +17.0% | +15.7% | +14.5% | +13.2% | +11.9% | +10.7% | +9.4% | +8.2% | +6.9% | +5.7% | +4.4% | +3.1% | +1.9% | +0.6% | -0.7% | -1.9% | -3.2% | -4.4% | -5.7% | |||
| Sep '25 | +15.7% | +14.0% | +12.1% | +10.3% | +8.5% | +6.7% | +5.0% | +3.2% | +1.4% | -0.4% | -2.2% | -4.0% | -5.9% | -7.7% | -9.5% | -11.3% | -13.1% | -14.9% | -16.6% | -18.4% | ||||
| Oct '25 | +13.1% | +11.1% | +9.2% | +7.2% | +5.3% | +3.5% | +1.5% | -0.4% | -2.3% | -4.2% | -6.2% | -8.2% | -10.1% | -12.0% | -13.9% | -15.9% | -17.9% | -19.7% | -21.6% | |||||
| Nov '25 | +13.3% | +11.7% | +10.1% | +8.5% | +7.1% | +5.5% | +3.9% | +2.3% | +0.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% | -3.9% | -5.5% | -7.1% | -8.7% | -10.3% | -11.7% | -13.3% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | +12.4% | +10.9% | +9.5% | +8.1% | +6.7% | +5.3% | +3.8% | +2.4% | +0.9% | -0.6% | -2.0% | -3.5% | -4.9% | -6.3% | -7.8% | -9.1% | -10.6% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | +11.3% | +9.7% | +8.3% | +6.8% | +5.3% | +3.8% | +2.3% | +0.7% | -0.8% | -2.3% | -3.8% | -5.3% | -6.9% | -8.4% | -9.8% | -11.3% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | +11.3% | +10.1% | +8.8% | +7.6% | +6.3% | +5.1% | +3.8% | +2.5% | +1.3% | +0.0% | -1.3% | -2.6% | -3.8% | -5.0% | -6.3% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | +14.2% | +13.6% | +13.0% | +12.4% | +11.8% | +11.1% | +10.5% | +9.9% | +9.3% | +8.7% | +8.1% | +7.5% | +6.9% | +6.3% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | +16.9% | +16.8% | +16.7% | +16.6% | +16.5% | +16.4% | +16.3% | +16.2% | +16.1% | +16.0% | +15.9% | +15.8% | +15.7% |