Unemployment Rate
Share of the labor force unemployed and seeking work.
3.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 19 bps/year over the last 1Y. Latest: -0.3%, 38 bps below trend, a 2.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = 0.3% − 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '24 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 131% |
| Jan '25 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 134% | |
| Feb '25 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 149% | ||
| Mar '25 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 168% | |||
| Apr '25 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 132% | ||||
| May '25 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 101% | |||||
| Jun '25 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 68% | ||||||
| Jul '25 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 104% | |||||||
| Aug '25 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 106% | ||||||||
| Sep '25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 200% | |||||||||
| Nov '25 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 200% | ||||||||||||
| Dec '25 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||
| Jan '26 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '24 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 131% |
| Jan '25 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 134% | |
| Feb '25 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | 149% | ||
| Mar '25 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 168% | |||
| Apr '25 | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 132% | ||||
| May '25 | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | 101% | |||||
| Jun '25 | +0.4% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 68% | ||||||
| Jul '25 | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 104% | |||||||
| Aug '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 106% | ||||||||
| Sep '25 | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | 200% | |||||||||
| Nov '25 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | 200% | |||||||||||
| Dec '25 | -0.3% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | |||||||||||||
| Jan '26 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |