Federal Government Receipts
Total federal tax revenue — the income side of the fiscal equation.
5.9k$B
Trend YoY growth is +3.8%, slowing by 17 bps/month over the last 4Y. Latest: +11.4%, 7.6 pp above trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 12.4% − 17 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '24 | +8.3% | +8.5% | +8.6% | +8.8% | +9.0% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +9.4% | +9.6% | +9.8% | +9.9% | +10.1% | +10.3% | +10.4% | +10.6% | +10.7% | +10.9% | +11.1% | +11.2% | +11.4% | +11.5% | +11.7% | +11.9% | +12.0% |
| Dec '24 | +8.5% | +8.6% | +8.8% | +9.0% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +9.4% | +9.6% | +9.8% | +9.9% | +10.1% | +10.3% | +10.4% | +10.6% | +10.7% | +10.9% | +11.1% | +11.2% | +11.4% | +11.5% | +11.7% | +11.9% | +12.0% | |
| Jan '25 | +7.1% | +7.0% | +6.9% | +6.8% | +6.7% | +6.6% | +6.5% | +6.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.6% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +5.1% | +5.0% | ||
| Feb '25 | +7.0% | +6.9% | +6.8% | +6.7% | +6.6% | +6.5% | +6.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.6% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +5.1% | +5.0% | |||
| Mar '25 | +6.9% | +6.8% | +6.7% | +6.6% | +6.5% | +6.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.6% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +5.1% | +5.0% | ||||
| Apr '25 | +8.2% | +8.3% | +8.4% | +8.4% | +8.5% | +8.6% | +8.7% | +8.8% | +8.8% | +8.9% | +9.0% | +9.1% | +9.1% | +9.2% | +9.3% | +9.4% | +9.5% | +9.5% | +9.6% | |||||
| May '25 | +8.3% | +8.4% | +8.4% | +8.5% | +8.6% | +8.7% | +8.8% | +8.8% | +8.9% | +9.0% | +9.1% | +9.1% | +9.2% | +9.3% | +9.4% | +9.5% | +9.5% | +9.6% | ||||||
| Jun '25 | +8.4% | +8.4% | +8.5% | +8.6% | +8.7% | +8.8% | +8.8% | +8.9% | +9.0% | +9.1% | +9.1% | +9.2% | +9.3% | +9.4% | +9.5% | +9.5% | +9.6% | |||||||
| Jul '25 | +10.5% | +10.9% | +11.3% | +11.7% | +12.1% | +12.5% | +12.9% | +13.3% | +13.7% | +14.1% | +14.5% | +14.9% | +15.3% | +15.7% | +16.2% | +16.6% | ||||||||
| Aug '25 | +10.9% | +11.3% | +11.7% | +12.1% | +12.5% | +12.9% | +13.3% | +13.7% | +14.1% | +14.5% | +14.9% | +15.3% | +15.7% | +16.2% | +16.6% | |||||||||
| Sep '25 | +11.3% | +11.7% | +12.1% | +12.5% | +12.9% | +13.3% | +13.7% | +14.1% | +14.5% | +14.9% | +15.3% | +15.7% | +16.2% | +16.6% | ||||||||||
| Oct '25 | +12.0% | +12.5% | +13.1% | +13.6% | +14.1% | +14.6% | +15.2% | +15.7% | +16.2% | +16.8% | +17.3% | +17.8% | +18.4% |