S&P 500
Broad equity market performance — a strong market signals economic confidence heading into the vote.
6.8kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +18.4%, accelerating by 10.5 pp/year over the last 6M. Latest: +27.1%, 8.7 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 10.
Level
YoY %
y = 13.1% + 10.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)
Projected value (Index)
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | 6.7k | 6.8k | 7.3k | 7.3k | 7.6k | 7.7k | 7.3k | 7.4k | 8.0k | 8.5k | 8.9k | 9.2k | 9.6k | 10.0k | 10.2k | 10.3k | 10.6k | 10.7k | 10.3k | 10.9k | 13.0k | 54% |
| Oct '25 | 6.8k | 7.1k | 7.0k | 7.3k | 7.3k | 6.9k | 7.0k | 7.5k | 7.9k | 8.2k | 8.4k | 8.8k | 9.1k | 9.2k | 9.3k | 9.5k | 9.5k | 9.1k | 9.6k | 10.6k | 32% | |
| Nov '25 | 6.8k | 6.9k | 7.1k | 7.0k | 6.6k | 6.6k | 7.0k | 7.4k | 7.6k | 7.8k | 8.1k | 8.3k | 8.4k | 8.4k | 8.6k | 8.5k | 8.1k | 8.5k | 8.9k | 15% | ||
| Dec '25 | 6.8k | 6.9k | 6.8k | 6.4k | 6.3k | 6.7k | 7.0k | 7.2k | 7.3k | 7.5k | 7.7k | 7.7k | 7.7k | 7.7k | 7.7k | 7.2k | 7.6k | 7.4k | 18% | |||
| Jan '26 | 6.9k | 6.8k | 6.4k | 6.3k | 6.7k | 7.0k | 7.1k | 7.2k | 7.4k | 7.5k | 7.5k | 7.5k | 7.5k | 7.4k | 7.0k | 7.3k | 7.1k | 25% | ||||
| Feb '26 | 6.9k | 6.4k | 6.3k | 6.7k | 7.0k | 7.1k | 7.2k | 7.5k | 7.6k | 7.6k | 7.6k | 7.6k | 7.5k | 7.1k | 7.4k | 7.2k | 31% | |||||
| Mar '26 | 6.5k | 6.4k | 6.9k | 7.2k | 7.4k | 7.5k | 7.8k | 8.0k | 8.0k | 8.0k | 8.1k | 8.1k | 7.7k | 8.0k | 8.1k | 42% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | 6.8k | 7.0k | 7.4k | 7.7k | 7.9k | 8.2k | 8.4k | 8.5k | 8.6k | 8.7k | 8.7k | 8.3k | 8.8k | 9.1k | ||||||||
| May '26 | 7.0k | 7.4k | 7.7k | 7.9k | 8.2k | 8.4k | 8.5k | 8.6k | 8.7k | 8.7k | 8.3k | 8.8k | 9.1k |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | +17.2% | +19.4% | +21.7% | +23.9% | +26.2% | +28.5% | +30.6% | +32.9% | +35.1% | +37.4% | +39.6% | +41.9% | +44.2% | +46.5% | +48.8% | +51.0% | +53.3% | +55.6% | +57.7% | +60.0% | +62.2% | 54% |
| Oct '25 | +19.4% | +18.3% | +19.6% | +21.0% | +22.3% | +23.5% | +24.9% | +26.1% | +27.5% | +28.8% | +30.1% | +31.5% | +32.7% | +34.1% | +35.4% | +36.7% | +38.1% | +39.3% | +40.6% | +41.9% | 32% | |
| Nov '25 | +13.5% | +16.5% | +17.1% | +17.6% | +18.1% | +18.7% | +19.2% | +19.7% | +20.3% | +20.8% | +21.4% | +21.9% | +22.4% | +23.0% | +23.5% | +24.1% | +24.6% | +25.1% | +25.7% | 15% | ||
| Dec '25 | +16.6% | +14.6% | +14.3% | +14.1% | +13.8% | +13.6% | +13.3% | +13.1% | +12.8% | +12.5% | +12.3% | +12.0% | +11.8% | +11.5% | +11.3% | +11.0% | +10.8% | +10.5% | 18% | |||
| Jan '26 | +14.9% | +14.1% | +13.7% | +13.1% | +12.6% | +12.1% | +11.6% | +11.1% | +10.6% | +10.1% | +9.5% | +9.0% | +8.5% | +8.0% | +7.5% | +7.0% | +6.5% | 25% | ||||
| Feb '26 | +15.5% | +14.0% | +13.6% | +13.2% | +12.8% | +12.4% | +11.9% | +11.5% | +11.1% | +10.7% | +10.3% | +9.9% | +9.5% | +9.1% | +8.7% | +8.3% | 31% | |||||
| Mar '26 | +15.9% | +15.8% | +16.0% | +16.2% | +16.3% | +16.5% | +16.7% | +16.9% | +17.0% | +17.2% | +17.4% | +17.6% | +17.7% | +17.9% | +18.1% | 42% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | +27.1% | +19.0% | +19.8% | +20.7% | +21.6% | +22.5% | +23.3% | +24.2% | +25.1% | +26.0% | +26.9% | +27.7% | +28.6% | +29.4% | ||||||||
| May '26 | +19.0% | +19.8% | +20.7% | +21.6% | +22.5% | +23.3% | +24.2% | +25.1% | +26.0% | +26.9% | +27.7% | +28.6% | +29.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.