Regional Banks (KRE)
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$69.8
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, slowing by 47 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 82 consecutive periods. Latest: +45.0%, 44.6 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 9.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr 9.
Level
YoY %
y = 28.7% − 47 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | +26.6% | +26.1% | +25.7% | +25.2% | +24.8% | +24.3% | +23.9% | +23.4% | +23.0% | +22.5% | +22.1% | +21.7% | +21.2% | +20.8% | +20.3% | +19.9% | +19.4% | +19.0% | +18.5% | +18.1% | +17.6% | +17.1% | +16.7% | +16.3% |
| Jun '25 | +24.0% | +23.2% | +22.3% | +21.5% | +20.6% | +19.8% | +19.0% | +18.1% | +17.3% | +16.5% | +15.7% | +14.8% | +14.0% | +13.2% | +12.3% | +11.5% | +10.6% | +9.8% | +9.0% | +8.1% | +7.3% | +6.5% | +5.7% | |
| Jul '25 | +21.8% | +20.4% | +19.1% | +17.7% | +16.4% | +15.0% | +13.7% | +12.3% | +11.1% | +9.7% | +8.4% | +7.0% | +5.7% | +4.3% | +2.9% | +1.6% | +0.3% | -1.1% | -2.4% | -3.8% | -5.0% | -6.4% | ||
| Aug '25 | +15.4% | +13.0% | +10.6% | +8.2% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +1.0% | -1.2% | -3.6% | -5.9% | -8.3% | -10.7% | -13.1% | -15.5% | -17.9% | -20.3% | -22.6% | -25.1% | -27.5% | -29.7% | -32.1% | |||
| Sep '25 | +12.3% | +9.6% | +6.8% | +4.0% | +1.2% | -1.5% | -4.1% | -6.9% | -9.6% | -12.4% | -15.1% | -17.9% | -20.7% | -23.4% | -26.2% | -28.9% | -31.7% | -34.5% | -37.0% | -39.8% | ||||
| Oct '25 | +10.9% | +8.2% | +5.5% | +2.8% | +0.1% | -2.4% | -5.2% | -7.8% | -10.6% | -13.2% | -16.0% | -18.7% | -21.4% | -24.1% | -26.8% | -29.5% | -32.3% | -34.7% | -37.5% | |||||
| Nov '25 | +8.6% | +6.2% | +3.8% | +1.3% | -0.9% | -3.3% | -5.7% | -8.1% | -10.5% | -12.9% | -15.3% | -17.7% | -20.1% | -22.5% | -24.9% | -27.4% | -29.6% | -32.0% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | +5.7% | +3.5% | +1.4% | -0.6% | -2.7% | -4.8% | -7.0% | -9.1% | -11.2% | -13.4% | -15.5% | -17.6% | -19.7% | -21.9% | -24.0% | -25.9% | -28.1% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | +4.7% | +2.6% | +0.6% | -1.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% | -7.9% | -10.1% | -12.2% | -14.3% | -16.5% | -18.6% | -20.7% | -22.9% | -24.8% | -27.0% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | +5.6% | +4.0% | +2.3% | +0.6% | -1.1% | -2.8% | -4.5% | -6.2% | -7.9% | -9.6% | -11.3% | -13.0% | -14.7% | -16.3% | -18.0% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | +8.4% | +7.4% | +6.5% | +5.5% | +4.5% | +3.5% | +2.5% | +1.5% | +0.5% | -0.5% | -1.5% | -2.5% | -3.4% | -4.4% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | +11.1% | +10.6% | +10.0% | +9.4% | +8.8% | +8.3% | +7.7% | +7.1% | +6.5% | +6.0% | +5.4% | +4.9% | +4.3% |