Property Crime Rate
Property crimes (burglary, theft, vehicle theft) per 100k residents.
1.5kper 100k
Trend YoY growth is -168.4%, slowing by 13.8 pp/year over the last 5Y. Latest: -261.0%, 92.6 pp below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 203.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = −99.3% − 13.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (per 100k)
Projected value (per 100k)
| Forecast made in | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | '37 | '38 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '13 | 2.0k | 2.1k | 1.9k | 2.1k | 2.2k | 2.3k | 2.2k | 2.7k | 2.8k | 3.4k | 2.5k | 2.5k | 2.6k | 2.4k | 3.4k | 4.4k | 5.4k | 6.6k | 7.8k | 9.1k | 10.4k | 11.8k | 13.3k | 14.8k | 16.4k | 18.1k | 774% |
| '14 | 1.7k | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.8k | 1.8k | 1.7k | 2.2k | 2.2k | 2.1k | 1.7k | 1.7k | 1.8k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.6k | 1.6k | 1.6k | 1.7k | 178% | |
| '15 | 1.8k | 1.9k | 1.9k | 2.0k | 1.9k | 2.4k | 2.4k | 2.6k | 2.0k | 2.0k | 2.1k | 1.8k | 2.1k | 2.5k | 2.9k | 3.2k | 3.7k | 4.1k | 4.6k | 5.1k | 5.6k | 6.2k | 6.7k | 7.3k | 271% | ||
| '16 | 1.9k | 1.9k | 2.0k | 1.8k | 2.3k | 2.3k | 2.4k | 1.9k | 1.9k | 1.9k | 1.7k | 1.9k | 2.1k | 2.3k | 2.5k | 2.7k | 3.0k | 3.3k | 3.5k | 3.8k | 4.1k | 4.5k | 4.8k | 188% | |||
| '17 | 1.9k | 2.0k | 1.9k | 2.4k | 2.4k | 2.7k | 2.0k | 2.0k | 2.1k | 1.9k | 2.3k | 2.7k | 3.2k | 3.6k | 4.2k | 4.7k | 5.3k | 5.9k | 6.6k | 7.3k | 8.0k | 8.7k | 399% | ||||
| '18 | 1.7k | 1.7k | 2.2k | 2.2k | 2.3k | 1.8k | 1.8k | 1.8k | 1.6k | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.8k | 1.9k | 2.0k | 2.1k | 2.2k | 2.3k | 2.5k | 2.6k | 2.7k | 2.9k | 109% | |||||
| '19 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2.5k | 2.9k | 2.2k | 2.2k | 2.3k | 2.1k | 2.6k | 3.2k | 3.9k | 4.6k | 5.4k | 6.2k | 7.0k | 7.9k | 8.9k | 9.8k | 10.9k | 12.0k | 749% | ||||||
| '20 | 2.2k | 2.4k | 2.7k | 2.1k | 2.1k | 2.2k | 1.9k | 2.4k | 2.9k | 3.4k | 3.9k | 4.5k | 5.2k | 5.9k | 6.6k | 7.3k | 8.1k | 9.0k | 9.9k | 501% | |||||||
| '22 | 1.8k | 1.3k | 1.2k | 1.1k | 702.3 | -251.3 | -1.3k | -2.5k | -3.9k | -5.3k | -6.9k | -8.6k | -10.5k | -12.4k | -14.5k | -16.7k | -19.1k | 956% | |||||||||
| '23 | 1.7k | 1.3k | 1.2k | 783.6 | -111.0 | -1.2k | -2.3k | -3.7k | -5.2k | -6.8k | -8.6k | -10.5k | -12.6k | -14.9k | -17.2k | -19.8k | 575% | ||||||||||
| '24 | 1.8k | 1.7k | 1.5k | 1.4k | 1.4k | 1.4k | 1.4k | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.6k | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.8k | 1.9k | 2.1k | 75% | |||||||||||
| '25 | 1.5k | 1.5k | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.9k | 2.2k | 2.6k | 3.0k | 3.5k | 4.0k | 4.6k | 5.3k | 6.1k | 6.9k | |||||||||||||
| '26 | 1.5k | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.9k | 2.2k | 2.6k | 3.0k | 3.5k | 4.0k | 4.6k | 5.3k | 6.1k | 6.9k |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | '37 | '38 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '13 | +35.3% | +101.3% | +166.3% | +231.3% | +296.5% | +361.5% | +426.5% | +491.4% | +556.6% | +621.6% | +686.6% | +751.6% | +816.8% | +881.8% | +946.8% | +1011.8% | +1076.9% | +1141.9% | +1206.9% | +1271.9% | +1337.1% | +1402.1% | +1467.1% | +1532.1% | +1597.2% | +1662.2% | 774% |
| '14 | -256.4% | -90.5% | -84.4% | -78.3% | -72.2% | -66.1% | -60.1% | -54.0% | -47.9% | -41.8% | -35.7% | -29.6% | -23.6% | -17.5% | -11.4% | -5.3% | +0.8% | +6.9% | +12.9% | +19.0% | +25.1% | +31.2% | +37.3% | +43.4% | +49.4% | 178% | |
| '15 | +139.7% | +37.6% | +63.1% | +88.6% | +114.1% | +139.6% | +165.1% | +190.6% | +216.1% | +241.6% | +267.1% | +292.6% | +318.1% | +343.5% | +369.1% | +394.6% | +420.0% | +445.5% | +471.1% | +496.5% | +522.0% | +547.5% | +573.1% | +598.5% | 271% | ||
| '16 | +26.8% | +33.9% | +48.5% | +63.0% | +77.5% | +92.1% | +106.6% | +121.1% | +135.6% | +150.2% | +164.7% | +179.2% | +193.7% | +208.3% | +222.8% | +237.3% | +251.9% | +266.4% | +280.9% | +295.5% | +310.0% | +324.5% | +339.1% | 188% | |||
| '17 | +56.3% | +97.9% | +130.4% | +162.9% | +195.5% | +228.0% | +260.5% | +293.0% | +325.6% | +358.1% | +390.6% | +423.1% | +455.7% | +488.2% | +520.7% | +553.2% | +585.8% | +618.3% | +650.8% | +683.3% | +715.8% | +748.3% | 399% | ||||
| '18 | -168.8% | -13.0% | -3.8% | +5.3% | +14.5% | +23.7% | +32.8% | +42.0% | +51.1% | +60.3% | +69.5% | +78.6% | +87.8% | +97.0% | +106.1% | +115.3% | +124.4% | +133.6% | +142.8% | +151.9% | +161.1% | 109% | |||||
| '19 | +470.0% | +244.2% | +290.7% | +337.2% | +383.6% | +430.0% | +476.6% | +523.0% | +569.5% | +615.9% | +662.5% | +708.9% | +755.3% | +801.8% | +848.3% | +894.8% | +941.2% | +987.6% | +1034.2% | +1080.6% | 749% | ||||||
| '20 | +20.3% | +201.2% | +241.2% | +281.3% | +321.3% | +361.4% | +401.5% | +441.5% | +481.6% | +521.7% | +561.8% | +601.8% | +641.8% | +682.0% | +722.0% | +762.1% | +802.1% | +842.3% | +882.3% | 501% | |||||||
| '22 | -468.5% | -447.7% | -574.1% | -700.8% | -827.2% | -953.6% | -1079.9% | -1206.7% | -1333.0% | -1459.4% | -1585.8% | -1712.5% | -1838.9% | -1965.3% | -2091.6% | -2218.3% | -2344.7% | 956% | |||||||||
| '23 | -29.5% | -448.1% | -597.2% | -745.9% | -894.6% | -1043.2% | -1192.3% | -1341.0% | -1489.7% | -1638.3% | -1787.4% | -1936.1% | -2084.7% | -2233.4% | -2382.5% | -2531.2% | 575% | ||||||||||
| '24 | +48.6% | -65.2% | -49.9% | -34.6% | -19.3% | -3.9% | +11.4% | +26.7% | +42.0% | +57.3% | +72.6% | +87.9% | +103.2% | +118.5% | +133.8% | 75% | |||||||||||
| '25 | -261.0% | -2.7% | +67.2% | +137.1% | +207.2% | +277.1% | +347.0% | +416.9% | +487.0% | +556.9% | +626.8% | +696.7% | +766.8% | +836.7% | |||||||||||||
| '26 | -2.7% | +67.2% | +137.1% | +207.2% | +277.1% | +347.0% | +416.9% | +487.0% | +556.9% | +626.8% | +696.7% | +766.8% | +836.7% |