Manufacturing Value Added
Ratio of China's manufacturing value added to US manufacturing value added. 1.0 = parity.
1.8×
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/month over the last 22Y. Latest: -0.0%, 3 bps below trend, a 0.3σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.1% − 0 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '12 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -1.8 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -3.6 | -4.2 | 121% |
| '13 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 116% | |
| '14 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 112% | ||
| '15 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -2.5 | -4.2 | -6.0 | -7.9 | -9.9 | -12.0 | -14.3 | -16.7 | -19.2 | -21.9 | -24.6 | 919% | |||
| '16 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -4.4 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -7.7 | -8.9 | -10.1 | 366% | ||||
| '17 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 153% | |||||
| '18 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 100% | ||||||
| '19 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 166% | |||||||
| '20 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 100% | ||||||||
| '21 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 417% | |||||||||
| '22 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 350% | ||||||||||
| '23 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | ||||||||||||
| '24 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '12 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | 121% |
| '13 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 116% | |
| '14 | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 112% | ||
| '15 | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -2.2% | -2.3% | -2.4% | -2.5% | -2.6% | -2.8% | 919% | |||
| '16 | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.3% | 366% | ||||
| '17 | +0.2% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 153% | |||||
| '18 | -0.2% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 100% | ||||||
| '19 | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 166% | |||||||
| '20 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||||
| '21 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | 417% | |||||||||
| '22 | -0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | 350% | ||||||||||
| '23 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | ||||||||||||
| '24 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% |