Frontier 50% Task-Completion Time
How long a task can be (in minutes) for frontier models to complete it 50% of the time
12.0hours
Trend YoY growth is +589.8%, accelerating by 8.2 pp/month over the last 3Y. Latest: +1200.8%, 610.9 pp above trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb 24.
Level
YoY %
y = 301.1% + 8.2 pp/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar '25 | +405.8% | +439.2% | +471.6% | +505.0% | +537.3% | +570.7% | +604.1% | +636.5% | +669.9% | +702.2% | +735.7% | +769.1% | +799.3% | +832.7% | +865.0% | +898.4% | +930.8% | +964.2% | +997.6% | +1029.9% | +1063.4% | +1095.7% | +1129.1% | +1162.5% |
| Apr '25 | +439.2% | +471.6% | +505.0% | +537.3% | +570.7% | +604.1% | +636.5% | +669.9% | +702.2% | +735.7% | +769.1% | +799.3% | +832.7% | +865.0% | +898.4% | +930.8% | +964.2% | +997.6% | +1029.9% | +1063.4% | +1095.7% | +1129.1% | +1162.5% | |
| May '25 | +471.6% | +505.0% | +537.3% | +570.7% | +604.1% | +636.5% | +669.9% | +702.2% | +735.7% | +769.1% | +799.3% | +832.7% | +865.0% | +898.4% | +930.8% | +964.2% | +997.6% | +1029.9% | +1063.4% | +1095.7% | +1129.1% | +1162.5% | ||
| Jun '25 | +486.3% | +515.5% | +545.7% | +575.8% | +605.0% | +635.2% | +664.4% | +694.6% | +724.8% | +752.0% | +782.2% | +811.4% | +841.6% | +870.8% | +900.9% | +931.1% | +960.3% | +990.5% | +1019.7% | +1049.9% | +1080.1% | |||
| Jul '25 | +670.0% | +725.3% | +780.5% | +833.9% | +889.2% | +942.6% | +997.8% | +1053.1% | +1103.0% | +1158.2% | +1211.6% | +1266.9% | +1320.3% | +1375.5% | +1430.8% | +1484.2% | +1539.4% | +1592.9% | +1648.1% | +1703.3% | ||||
| Aug '25 | +725.3% | +780.5% | +833.9% | +889.2% | +942.6% | +997.8% | +1053.1% | +1103.0% | +1158.2% | +1211.6% | +1266.9% | +1320.3% | +1375.5% | +1430.8% | +1484.2% | +1539.4% | +1592.9% | +1648.1% | +1703.3% | |||||
| Sep '25 | +532.9% | +562.0% | +592.0% | +621.1% | +651.1% | +681.2% | +708.3% | +738.3% | +767.4% | +797.4% | +826.5% | +856.5% | +886.6% | +915.6% | +945.6% | +974.7% | +1004.7% | +1034.8% | ||||||
| Oct '25 | +539.1% | +563.6% | +587.2% | +611.7% | +636.1% | +658.2% | +682.7% | +706.4% | +730.8% | +754.5% | +778.9% | +803.4% | +827.1% | +851.5% | +875.2% | +899.7% | +924.1% | |||||||
| Nov '25 | +472.7% | +476.3% | +480.0% | +483.6% | +487.0% | +490.6% | +494.2% | +497.9% | +501.5% | +505.1% | +508.8% | +512.4% | +516.1% | +519.6% | +523.3% | +527.0% | ||||||||
| Dec '25 | +564.4% | +580.0% | +595.6% | +609.7% | +625.3% | +640.4% | +656.0% | +671.1% | +686.8% | +702.4% | +717.5% | +733.1% | +748.2% | +763.8% | +779.4% | |||||||||
| Jan '26 | +580.0% | +595.6% | +609.7% | +625.3% | +640.4% | +656.0% | +671.1% | +686.8% | +702.4% | +717.5% | +733.1% | +748.2% | +763.8% | +779.4% | ||||||||||
| Feb '26 | +866.1% | +912.0% | +962.9% | +1012.1% | +1062.9% | +1112.2% | +1163.0% | +1213.9% | +1263.1% | +1313.9% | +1363.2% | +1414.0% | +1464.9% |