GDP per Capita, Major Belligerents
The US grew substantially as a supplier while France and Russia contracted sharply — complicating any single-narrative reading of the war's economic impact.
6.4k2011 USD PPP
Trend YoY growth is +5.6%, accelerating by 1.6 pp/year over the last 5Y. Latest: +1.6%, 4.0 pp below trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 80 bps due to an easy comparison base from 1924.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.1% + 1.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (2011 USD PPP)
Projected value (2011 USD PPP)
| Forecast made in | 1918 | 1919 | 1920 | 1921 | 1922 | 1923 | 1924 | 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1918 | 5.6k | 6.0k | 6.4k | 6.2k | 6.2k | 6.6k | 7.4k | 7.8k | 8.1k | 10.4k | 13.6k | 18.2k | 512% |
| 1919 | 5.8k | 6.0k | 5.8k | 5.7k | 5.9k | 6.5k | 6.7k | 6.9k | 7.4k | 8.0k | 8.7k | 174% | |
| 1920 | 5.5k | 5.4k | 5.2k | 5.3k | 5.7k | 5.8k | 5.8k | 5.2k | 4.6k | 4.0k | 257% | ||
| 1921 | 5.4k | 5.3k | 5.5k | 5.9k | 6.1k | 6.1k | 5.8k | 5.5k | 5.2k | 199% | |||
| 1922 | 5.6k | 5.5k | 5.9k | 6.0k | 6.0k | 5.5k | 5.0k | 4.5k | 253% | ||||
| 1923 | 6.1k | 6.6k | 6.9k | 7.1k | 8.1k | 9.4k | 11.0k | 322% | |||||
| 1924 | 6.3k | 6.9k | 7.2k | 8.3k | 9.9k | 12.0k | 535% | ||||||
| 1925 | 6.4k | 6.7k | 7.1k | 7.6k | 8.1k | ||||||||
| 1926 | 6.7k | 7.1k | 7.6k | 8.1k |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 1918 | 1919 | 1920 | 1921 | 1922 | 1923 | 1924 | 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1918 | +7.7% | +8.0% | +10.5% | +13.1% | +15.7% | +18.3% | +20.9% | +23.4% | +26.0% | +28.6% | +31.2% | +33.8% | 512% |
| 1919 | +3.6% | +4.2% | +4.8% | +5.3% | +5.8% | +6.3% | +6.8% | +7.3% | +7.8% | +8.3% | +8.9% | 174% | |
| 1920 | -5.2% | -2.6% | -3.9% | -5.2% | -6.4% | -7.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% | -11.6% | -12.9% | 257% | ||
| 1921 | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.5% | -3.0% | -3.6% | -4.2% | -4.7% | -5.3% | -5.8% | 199% | |||
| 1922 | +3.7% | -2.4% | -3.7% | -5.1% | -6.4% | -7.8% | -9.1% | -10.4% | 253% | ||||
| 1923 | +8.9% | +7.7% | +9.7% | +11.6% | +13.6% | +15.6% | +17.5% | 322% | |||||
| 1924 | +3.3% | +10.1% | +12.8% | +15.6% | +18.4% | +21.1% | 535% | ||||||
| 1925 | +1.6% | +5.1% | +5.7% | +6.3% | +7.0% | ||||||||
| 1926 | +5.1% | +5.7% | +6.3% | +7.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.