Federal Interest Payments
Quarterly federal government interest outlays — the direct cost of carrying the debt.
1.2k$B
Trend YoY growth is +10.7%, slowing by 36 bps/month over the last 4Y. Latest: +6.2%, 4.4 pp below trend, a 0.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 29.2% − 36 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '24 | +11.9% | +10.5% | +9.1% | +7.6% | +6.4% | +4.9% | +3.6% | +2.1% | +0.7% | -0.7% | -2.1% | -3.5% | -4.9% | -6.3% | -7.7% | -9.1% | -10.4% | -11.8% | -13.2% | -14.6% | -16.0% | -17.4% | -18.9% | -20.2% |
| Dec '24 | +10.5% | +9.1% | +7.6% | +6.4% | +4.9% | +3.6% | +2.1% | +0.7% | -0.7% | -2.1% | -3.5% | -4.9% | -6.3% | -7.7% | -9.1% | -10.4% | -11.8% | -13.2% | -14.6% | -16.0% | -17.4% | -18.9% | -20.2% | |
| Jan '25 | +6.7% | +4.8% | +3.1% | +1.2% | -0.6% | -2.5% | -4.4% | -6.3% | -8.2% | -10.0% | -11.9% | -13.8% | -15.7% | -17.6% | -19.3% | -21.2% | -23.1% | -25.0% | -26.8% | -28.7% | -30.6% | -32.5% | ||
| Feb '25 | +4.8% | +3.1% | +1.2% | -0.6% | -2.5% | -4.4% | -6.3% | -8.2% | -10.0% | -11.9% | -13.8% | -15.7% | -17.6% | -19.3% | -21.2% | -23.1% | -25.0% | -26.8% | -28.7% | -30.6% | -32.5% | |||
| Mar '25 | +3.1% | +1.2% | -0.6% | -2.5% | -4.4% | -6.3% | -8.2% | -10.0% | -11.9% | -13.8% | -15.7% | -17.6% | -19.3% | -21.2% | -23.1% | -25.0% | -26.8% | -28.7% | -30.6% | -32.5% | ||||
| Apr '25 | +3.9% | +2.4% | +0.9% | -0.6% | -2.2% | -3.7% | -5.2% | -6.7% | -8.2% | -9.7% | -11.3% | -12.7% | -14.2% | -15.7% | -17.2% | -18.7% | -20.2% | -21.8% | -23.3% | |||||
| May '25 | +2.4% | +0.9% | -0.6% | -2.2% | -3.7% | -5.2% | -6.7% | -8.2% | -9.7% | -11.3% | -12.7% | -14.2% | -15.7% | -17.2% | -18.7% | -20.2% | -21.8% | -23.3% | ||||||
| Jun '25 | +0.9% | -0.6% | -2.2% | -3.7% | -5.2% | -6.7% | -8.2% | -9.7% | -11.3% | -12.7% | -14.2% | -15.7% | -17.2% | -18.7% | -20.2% | -21.8% | -23.3% | |||||||
| Jul '25 | +3.6% | +2.8% | +2.0% | +1.2% | +0.4% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | -2.8% | -3.6% | -4.4% | -5.2% | -6.0% | -6.8% | -7.6% | -8.4% | ||||||||
| Aug '25 | +2.8% | +2.0% | +1.2% | +0.4% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | -2.8% | -3.6% | -4.4% | -5.2% | -6.0% | -6.8% | -7.6% | -8.4% | |||||||||
| Sep '25 | +2.0% | +1.2% | +0.4% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | -2.8% | -3.6% | -4.4% | -5.2% | -6.0% | -6.8% | -7.6% | -8.4% | ||||||||||
| Oct '25 | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +5.1% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +4.9% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.5% | +4.4% |